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Measuring macroeconomic exposure: The case of Volvo Cars

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  • Lars Oxelheim
  • Clas Wihlborg

Abstract

Volvo Cars' economic exposure to exchange rates and other macroeconomic variables is estimated using quarterly cash flows as the firm's target variable. We discuss first several issues relating to management's view of the macroeconomic environment, as well as the firm's objective and structure. These issues must be addressed before multiple regression analysis can be implemented with the purpose of estimating exposures. the use of cash flow exposure coefficients for evaluating exposure and choosing currency denomination of liabilities is illustrated, and an out‐of‐sample analysis of the estimated exposure coefficients is carried out.

Suggested Citation

  • Lars Oxelheim & Clas Wihlborg, 1995. "Measuring macroeconomic exposure: The case of Volvo Cars," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 1(3), pages 241-263, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:1:y:1995:i:3:p:241-263
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-036X.1995.tb00019.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Krapl, Alain A., 2017. "Asymmetric foreign exchange cash flow exposure: A firm-level analysis," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 48-72.
    2. Bartram, Söhnke M., 2008. "What lies beneath: Foreign exchange rate exposure, hedging and cash flows," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1508-1521, August.
    3. Lars Oxelheim & Clas Wihlborg, 2003. "Recognizing Macroeconomic Fluctuations In Value Based Management," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 15(4), pages 104-110, September.
    4. Chou, De-Wai & Lin, Lin & Hung, Pi-Hsia & Lin, Chun Heng, 2017. "A revisit to economic exposure of U.S. multinational corporations," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 273-287.
    5. Kulcsar Edina & Tarnoczi Tibor, 2012. "The Comparative Analysis Of Romanian And Hungarian Stock Market Indices And Exchange Rates," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 720-727, July.
    6. Sohnke M. Bartram, 2005. "The Impact of Commodity Price Risk on Firm Value - An Empirical Analysis of Corporate Commodity Price Exposures," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 9(3-4), pages 161-187, September.
    7. Lee, Seul Ki & Jang, SooCheong (Shawn), 2011. "Foreign exchange exposure of US tourism-related firms," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 934-948.
    8. Andrikopoulos, Athanasios & Dassiou, Xeni & Zheng, Min, 2020. "Exchange-rate exposure and Brexit: The case of FTSE, DAX and IBEX," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    9. Bartram, Sohnke M., 2007. "Corporate cash flow and stock price exposures to foreign exchange rate risk," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 981-994, December.
    10. Alain Krapl & Thomas J. O'Brien, 2014. "A comparison of FX exposure estimates with different control variables," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(6), pages 437-451, March.
    11. Carmelo Giaccotto & Alain Krapl, 2014. "Good News and Bad News about Firm-Level Stock Returns of Internationally Exposed Firms," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 523-550, December.
    12. Hung, Juann H., 1997. "The exchange rate's impact on overseas profits of U.S. multinationals," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 439-458.
    13. O’Brien, Thomas J., 2022. "Cross-border valuation using the International CAPM and the constant perpetual growth model," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    14. Krapl, Alain & O'Brien, Thomas J., 2015. "Direct versus indirect regression estimates of foreign exchange cash flow exposure," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 103-112.
    15. Rolseth, Lars, 1998. "Adjusting Stock Market Values to Exchange Rate Exposure: The Case of ASTRA, SCA and STORA," Working Papers in Economics 6, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    16. Young Sang Kim & Junyoup Lee & Ha-Chin Yi, 2021. "Is Foreign Exchange Risk Priced in Bank Loan Spreads?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1061-1092, October.

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