IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/eufman/v19y2013i5p911-934.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trade Timing, Price Volatility and Serial Correlation

Author

Listed:
  • Ming†Chang Wang
  • Lon†Ping Zu

Abstract

This study sets up a multiple†period, competitive rational expectations model to facilitate an examination into how informed traders time their trading on private information so as to maximise their expected utility. We find that, in equilibrium, informed traders may elect to trade late on their information, a result which contradicts other competitive rational expectations models in which it is generally assumed that informed traders will trade immediately upon receiving private information. Our results imply that price volatility will increase and price changes may display positive serial correlation. This phenomenon helps to explain the excess volatility puzzle of asset prices and medium†term continuations (momentum).

Suggested Citation

  • Ming†Chang Wang & Lon†Ping Zu, 2013. "Trade Timing, Price Volatility and Serial Correlation," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 19(5), pages 911-934, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:19:y:2013:i:5:p:911-934
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-036X.2011.00614.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-036X.2011.00614.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1468-036X.2011.00614.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Craig W. Holden & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2002. "News Events, Information Acquisition, and Serial Correlation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(1), pages 1-32, January.
    2. Tarun Chordia & Lakshmanan Shivakumar, 2002. "Momentum, Business Cycle, and Time‐varying Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 985-1019, April.
    3. Jiang Wang, 1993. "A Model of Intertemporal Asset Prices Under Asymmetric Information," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(2), pages 249-282.
    4. John A. Doukas & Phillip J. McKnight, 2005. "European Momentum Strategies, Information Diffusion, and Investor Conservatism," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 11(3), pages 313-338, June.
    5. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1039-1082 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Carlos Forner & Joaquín Marhuenda, 2003. "Contrarian and Momentum Strategies in the Spanish Stock Market," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 9(1), pages 67-88, March.
    7. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1839-1885 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    9. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    10. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    11. Hirshleifer, David & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Titman, Sheridan, 1994. "Security Analysis and Trading Patterns When Some Investors Receive Information before Others," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1665-1698, December.
    12. Sam Agyei‐Ampomah, 2007. "The Post‐Cost Profitability of Momentum Trading Strategies: Further Evidence from the UK," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(4), pages 776-802, September.
    13. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:1:p:267-284 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. John Y. Campbell & Albert S. Kyle, 1993. "Smart Money, Noise Trading and Stock Price Behaviour," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(1), pages 1-34.
    15. Andreas Szczutkowski, 2001. "Strategic Information Acquisition in Capital Markets," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 316-327, September.
    16. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1481-1509 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Albert S. Kyle, 1989. "Informed Speculation with Imperfect Competition," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 56(3), pages 317-355.
    18. Bray, Margaret M, 1981. "Futures Trading, Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 575-596, May.
    19. Grossman, Sanford J, 1986. "An Analysis of the Role of "Insider Trading" on Futures Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 129-146, April.
    20. Dong-Hyun Ahn & Jennifer Conrad & Robert F. Dittmar, 2003. "Risk Adjustment and Trading Strategies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 459-485.
    21. Doron Avramov & Tarun Chordia, 2006. "Asset Pricing Models and Financial Market Anomalies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 1001-1040.
    22. Hellwig, Martin F., 1980. "On the aggregation of information in competitive markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 477-498, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Masahiro Watanabe, 2002. "Price Volatility and Investor Behavior in an Overlapping Generations Model with Information Asymmetry," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2636, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jul 2002.
    2. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, April.
    3. García, Diego & Urošević, Branko, 2013. "Noise and aggregation of information in large markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 526-549.
    4. Terrance Odean., 1996. "Volume, Volatility, Price and Profit When All Trader Are Above Average," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-266, University of California at Berkeley.
    5. James Peck & Matthew O. Jackson, 1999. "Asymmetric information in a competitive market game: Reexamining the implications of rational expectations," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 13(3), pages 603-628.
    6. Bernard Dumas & Alexander Kurshev & Raman Uppal, 2005. "What Can Rational Investors Do About Excessive Volatility and Sentiment Fluctuations?," NBER Working Papers 11803, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Bernard Dumas & Alexander Kurshev & Raman Uppal, 2009. "Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 579-629, April.
    8. Sandrine Jacob Leal, 2015. "Fundamentalists, chartists and asset pricing anomalies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(11), pages 1837-1850, November.
    9. Fernando F. Ferreira & A. Christian Silva & Ju-Yi Yen, 2014. "Information ratio analysis of momentum strategies," Papers 1402.3030, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2014.
    10. Matthew Spiegel, 1996. "Stock Price Volatility in a Multiple Security Overlapping Generations Model," Finance 9608002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Masahiro Watanabe, 2002. "Price Volatility and Investor Behavior in an Overlapping Generations Model with Information Asymmetry," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2636, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jul 2002.
    12. Sandrine Jacob Leal, 2015. "Fundamentalists, Chartists and Asset pricing anomalies," Post-Print hal-01508002, HAL.
    13. Avdis, Efstathios, 2016. "Information tradeoffs in dynamic financial markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 568-584.
    14. Shiyang Huang & Bart Zhou Yueshen, 2021. "Speed Acquisition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 3492-3518, June.
    15. Matteo Formenti, 2014. "Can Market Risk Perception Drive Inefficient Prices? Theory and Evidence," Papers 1409.4890, arXiv.org.
    16. Fernando F. Ferreira & A. Christian Silva & Ju-Yi Yen, 2019. "Detailed study of a moving average trading rule," Papers 1907.00212, arXiv.org.
    17. Markus Glaser & Thomas Langer & Martin Weber, 2007. "On the Trend Recognition and Forecasting Ability of Professional Traders," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 4(4), pages 176-193, December.
    18. Barberis, Nicholas & Greenwood, Robin & Jin, Lawrence & Shleifer, Andrei, 2015. "X-CAPM: An extrapolative capital asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-24.
    19. Peress, Joel & Schmidt, Daniel, 2021. "Noise traders incarnate: Describing a realistic noise trading process," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    20. He, Hua & Wang, Jiang, 1995. "Differential Information and Dynamic Behavior of Stock Trading Volume," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(4), pages 919-972.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:19:y:2013:i:5:p:911-934. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/efmaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.