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The distributional impact of unification and the 1992–93 recession on West German households

Author

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  • John A. Bishop
  • John P. Formby
  • Lester A. Zeager

Abstract

The 1992–93 recession in the western states of Germany has been attributed, in substantial measure, to the macroeconomic consequences of policies to finance unification. Studies of the costs of unification have not attempted to measure the burden of the recession. We estimate a dynamic, panel model of household incomes using data from the German Socio‐Economic Panel (GSOEP) and use it to forecast what these incomes would have been in 1992–94 without a recession. Using a ratio of actual to forecast incomes, we compare the relative burden of the recession across households. Our findings suggest that western households below the median income bore the brunt of the combined impact of unification and the recession of 1992–93. JEL classification: P3, D3, E3.

Suggested Citation

  • John A. Bishop & John P. Formby & Lester A. Zeager, 2001. "The distributional impact of unification and the 1992–93 recession on West German households," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(2), pages 515-532, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:etrans:v:9:y:2001:i:2:p:515-532
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-0351.00086
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    JEL classification:

    • P3 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions
    • D3 - Microeconomics - - Distribution
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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