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Estimating the Elasticity of Taxable Income in New Zealand

Author

Listed:
  • Simon Carey
  • John Creedy
  • Norman Gemmell
  • Josh Teng

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="ecor12151-abs-0001"> This paper produces regression estimates of the elasticity of taxable income in New Zealand using two new instruments applied to a substantial tax reform ‘experiment’. Instrumental variable methods are required to deal with endogeneity of the tax rate and taxable income in a non-linear tax structure. However, in the New Zealand context, the ‘standard’ regression instrument is found to be unable to accommodate the substantial observed exogenous (non-tax-induced) changes in taxable income. Two new tax rate instruments are proposed, which use information on taxable income dynamics, for a panel of taxpayers over a period that involves no tax changes, to derive taxpayers’ counterfactual post-reform incomes and tax rates expected in the absence of reform. The two instruments respectively measure, for each taxpayer, the tax rate associated with expected mean income, and the expected tax rate associated with the individual's expected conditional distribution of income. Applying these instruments to the 2001 New Zealand tax changes yields plausible estimates of the elasticity of taxable income around 0.5–0.7. Elasticities are found to be substantially higher for taxpayers with non-wage-and-salary income compared with wage and salary only taxpayers. Results also confirm that non-wage-and-salary income was especially responsive to the tax changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Carey & John Creedy & Norman Gemmell & Josh Teng, 2015. "Estimating the Elasticity of Taxable Income in New Zealand," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 91(292), pages 54-78, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:91:y:2015:i:292:p:54-78
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/ecor.2015.91.issue-292
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. John Creedy & Grant Scobie, 2017. "Debt projections and fiscal sustainability with feedback effects," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(3), pages 237-261, September.
    2. Nazila Alinaghi & John Creedy & Norman Gemmell, 2023. "Do couples bunch more? Evidence from partnered and single taxpayers," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(4), pages 1137-1184, August.
    3. Gemmell, Norman, 2020. "New Zealand's Tax Reforms and 'Tax Sheltering' Behaviour," Working Paper Series 9367, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    4. John Creedy & Norman Gemmell & Loc Nguyen, 2018. "Income Inequality in New Zealand, 1935–2014," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 51(1), pages 21-40, March.
    5. Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman & Hérault, Nicolas & Mok, Penny, 2018. "Microsimulation Analysis of Optimal Income Tax Reforms. An Application to New Zealand," GLO Discussion Paper Series 213, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    6. Carina Neisser, 2021. "The Elasticity of Taxable Income: A Meta-Regression Analysis [The top 1% in international and historical perspective]," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(640), pages 3365-3391.
    7. Nazila Alinaghi & John Creedy & Norman Gemmell, 2021. "Designing Personal Income Tax and Transfer Reforms: Alternative Modelling Approaches," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 54(4), pages 445-461, December.
    8. John Creedy & Norman Gemmell, 2020. "The elasticity of taxable income of individuals in couples," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(4), pages 931-950, August.
    9. Alinaghi, Nazila & Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman, 2020. "Designing Direct Tax Reforms: Alternative Approaches," Working Paper Series 9338, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    10. Sanz-Sanz, José Félix, 2015. "Revenue-Maximising Tax Rates in Personal Income Taxation in the Presence of Consumption Taxes: A note," Working Paper Series 19275, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    11. Frish Roni & Zussman Noam & Igdalov Sophia, 2020. "The Wage Response to a Reduction in Income Tax Rates: The Israeli Tax Reform," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 1-22, April.
    12. Alinaghi, Nazila & Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman, 2020. "Do Couples Bunch More? Evidence from Partnered and Single Taxpayers in New Zealand," Working Paper Series 9366, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    13. Alinaghi, Nazila & Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman, 2020. "Do Couples Bunch More? Evidence from Partnered and Single Taxpayers in New Zealand," Working Paper Series 21094, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    14. Gemmell, Norman, 2020. "New Zealand's Tax Reforms and 'Tax Sheltering' Behaviour," Working Paper Series 21095, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    15. Sophia Igdalov & Roni Frish & Noam Zussman, 2017. "The Wage Response to a Reduction in Income Tax Rates: The 2003–2009 Tax Reform in Israel," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2017.14, Bank of Israel.
    16. Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman & Hérault, Nicolas & Mok, Penny, 2018. "Microsimulation Analysis of Optimal Income Tax Reforms. An Application to New Zealand," GLO Discussion Paper Series 213, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    17. Alinaghi, Nazila & Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman, 2020. "Designing Direct Tax Reforms: Alternative Approaches," Working Paper Series 21093, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    18. John Creedy & Grant Scobie, 2017. "Debt projections and fiscal sustainability with feedback effects," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(3), pages 237-261, September.

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