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Is US Monetary Growth a Leading Indicator of Australian Monetary Growth?

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  • ALLAN P. LAYTON

Abstract

For an open economy the existence of internationally integrated goods and capital markets implies the country's monetary growth may be considerably influenced by fluctuations in international monetary circumstances. Theoretical literature exists which suggests US monetary growth may be catalytic in determining world monetary growth in general and the monetary growth of smaller. dependent economies in particular. In this paper, prima facie Australian statistical evidence is found which is consistent with this postulate. The lag in the association is identified and a model specified and estimated. A post‐sample validation period supports and strengthens the within‐sample results.

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  • Allan P. Layton, 1983. "Is US Monetary Growth a Leading Indicator of Australian Monetary Growth?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 59(2), pages 180-185, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:59:y:1983:i:2:p:180-185
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.1983.tb00592.x
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    1. repec:bla:ecorec:v:56:y:1980:i:155:p:331-37 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Swoboda, Alexander K, 1978. "Gold, Dollars, Euro-Dollars, and the World Money Stock under Fixed Exchange Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(4), pages 625-642, September.
    3. Ian G. Sharpe & Paul A. Volker, 1980. "The Australian Monetary Base/Money Supply Relationship 1964–1977," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 56(155), pages 331-337, December.
    4. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Testing for causality : A personal viewpoint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 329-352, May.
    5. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
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