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PROBLEMS IN MODELING COMPLEX DYNAMIC INTERACTIONS: THE POLITICAL REALIGNMENT OF THE 1850s

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  • Robert William Fogel

Abstract

This paper argues that a model of sequential choice is superior to the standard rational choice model in explaining a process as complex and dynamic as the political realignment of the 1850s. Part 1 sketches the facts and processes that need to be encompassed by a model and identifies key branching points. Part 2 describes an appropriate model of sequential choice and discusses procedures for estimating transition probabilities and the impact of key variables on these transition probabilities. Part 3 identifies implicit assumptions of rational choice theory that limit its usefulness.

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  • Robert William Fogel, 1992. "PROBLEMS IN MODELING COMPLEX DYNAMIC INTERACTIONS: THE POLITICAL REALIGNMENT OF THE 1850s," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 215-254, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecopol:v:4:y:1992:i:3:p:215-254
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0343.1992.tb00086.x
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    1. Becker, Gary S, 1974. "A Theory of Social Interactions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1063-1093, Nov.-Dec..
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    5. Arthur, W Brian, 1989. "Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 116-131, March.
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    7. Zvi Eckstein & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 1989. "The Specification and Estimation of Dynamic Stochastic Discrete Choice Models: A Survey," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 24(4), pages 562-598.
    8. Stigler, George J & Becker, Gary S, 1977. "De Gustibus Non Est Disputandum," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 76-90, March.
    9. Gary S. Becker, 1983. "A Theory of Competition Among Pressure Groups for Political Influence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(3), pages 371-400.
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    1. Vincent Geloso & Linan Peng, 2024. "Postbellum electoral politics in California and the genesis of the Chinese exclusion act of 1882," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 403-434, June.

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