IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecopol/v33y2021i1p109-132.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Electoral uncertainty and financial volatility: Evidence from two‐round presidential races in emerging markets

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Carnahan
  • Sebastian Saiegh

Abstract

We study how the predictability and the decisiveness of electoral outcomes affect financial volatility. We argue that traders’ optimal investment strategies depend on their ability to make accurate electoral forecasts and the prospective losses associated with placing a bet on the wrong candidate. Using a triple difference‐in‐difference approach and data from two‐round presidential elections in five Latin American countries between 1999 and 2018, we find that financial volatility is greatest in the days immediately following unpredictable, decisive, elections. Postelectoral volatility also occurs following predictable, indecisive elections. The effect of learning the identity of the winning candidate on financial volatility is null when the election is unpredictable and indecisive, as well as when the election is decisive, but the outcome is predictable. These findings offer insights into investors seeking to hedge price risk around elections. They also have important implications regarding the relationship between public opinion polls and postelectoral financial volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Carnahan & Sebastian Saiegh, 2021. "Electoral uncertainty and financial volatility: Evidence from two‐round presidential races in emerging markets," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 109-132, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecopol:v:33:y:2021:i:1:p:109-132
    DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.12163
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.12163
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/ecpo.12163?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2012. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1219-1264, August.
    2. Leblang, David & Mukherjee, Bumba, 2004. "Presidential Elections and the Stock Market: Comparing Markov-Switching and Fractionally Integrated GARCH Models of Volatility," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 296-322, July.
    3. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, April.
    4. Cukierman, Alex, 1980. "The Effects of Uncertainty on Investment under Risk Neutrality with Endogenous Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(3), pages 462-475, June.
    5. Canes-Wrone, Brandice & Park, Jee-Kwang, 2012. "Electoral Business Cycles in OECD Countries," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 106(1), pages 103-122, February.
    6. Brandon Julio & Youngsuk Yook, 2012. "Political Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Cycles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 45-84, February.
    7. Paul M. Vaaler & Burkhard N. Schrage & Steven A. Block, 2006. "Elections, Opportunism, Partisanship and Sovereign Ratings in Developing Countries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 154-170, February.
    8. Campello,Daniela, 2015. "The Politics of Market Discipline in Latin America," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107039254.
    9. Emmanuel Frot & Javier Santiso, 2013. "Political uncertainty and portfolio managers in emerging economies," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 26-51, February.
    10. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    11. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2010. "Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9111.
    12. Kiymaz, Halil & Berument, Hakan, 2003. "The day of the week effect on stock market volatility and volume: International evidence," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 363-380.
    13. Bernhard,William & Leblang,David, 2006. "Democratic Processes and Financial Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521861229.
    14. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    15. Paul M Vaaler & Burkhard N Schrage & Steven A Block, 2005. "Counting the investor vote: political business cycle effects on sovereign bond spreads in developing countries," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 36(1), pages 62-88, January.
    16. Atanasov, Vladimir & Black, Bernard, 2016. "Shock-Based Causal Inference in Corporate Finance and Accounting Research," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 5(2), pages 207-304, December.
    17. Leblang, David & Satyanath, Shanker, 2008. "Politically generated uncertainty and currency crises: Theory, tests, and forecasts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 480-497, April.
    18. Bernhard,William & Leblang,David, 2006. "Democratic Processes and Financial Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521678384.
    19. Maria Boutchkova & Hitesh Doshi & Art Durnev & Alexander Molchanov, 2012. "Precarious Politics and Return Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 1111-1154.
    20. Hellwig, Timothy & Samuels, David, 2008. "Electoral Accountability and the Variety of Democratic Regimes," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(1), pages 65-90, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ghalke, Avinash & Sensarma, Rudra & Chakraborty, Sandip & Kakani, Ram Kumar, 2023. "Stock markets and economic uncertainty: Roles of legislative sessions and coalition strength," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin Lausegger, 2021. "Stock markets in turmoil: political institutions and the impact of elections," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 172-204, March.
    2. Cormier, Benjamin & Naqvi, Natalya, 2023. "Delegating discipline: how indexes restructured the political economy of sovereign bond markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117248, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Nathan Jensen, 2007. "International institutions and market expectations: Stock price responses to the WTO ruling on the 2002 U.S. steel tariffs," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 261-280, September.
    4. Kaviani, Mahsa S. & Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Maleki, Hosein & Savor, Pavel, 2020. "Policy uncertainty and corporate credit spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(3), pages 838-865.
    5. Danglun Luo & Naqiong Tong & Guoman She, 2017. "City‐level political uncertainty and city‐level IPO activities," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(5), pages 1447-1480, December.
    6. Jäger, Kai, 2016. "The Role of Regime Type in the Political Economy of Foreign Reserve Accumulation," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 79-96.
    7. Wael Bousselmi & Patrick Sentis & Marc Willinger, 2018. "Impact of the Brexit vote announcement on long-run market performance," CEE-M Working Papers hal-01954920, CEE-M, Universtiy of Montpellier, CNRS, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro.
    8. Laura A. Wellman, 2017. "Mitigating political uncertainty," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 217-250, March.
    9. Canes-Wrone, Brandice & Ponce de Leon, Christian & Thieme, Sebastian, 2022. "Electoral Cycles, Investment, and Institutional Constraints in Developing Democracies," IAST Working Papers 22-129, Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse (IAST).
    10. Azimli, Asil, 2022. "The impact of policy, political and economic uncertainty on corporate capital investment in the emerging markets of Eastern Europe and Turkey," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    11. Bryan W. Husted & Walid Saffar, 2023. "Elections and CSR Engagement: International Evidence," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 184(1), pages 115-138, April.
    12. Brandon Julio & Youngsuk Yook, 2013. "Policy uncertainty, irreversibility, and cross-border flows of capital," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-64, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Pradyumna Dash, 2016. "The Impact of Public Investment on Private Investment: Evidence from India," Vikalpa: The Journal for Decision Makers, , vol. 41(4), pages 288-307, December.
    14. Civilize, Sireethorn & Wongchoti, Udomsak & Young, Martin, 2015. "Military regimes and stock market performance," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 76-95.
    15. Julio, Brandon & Yook, Youngsuk, 2016. "Policy uncertainty, irreversibility, and cross-border flows of capital," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 13-26.
    16. Thanh C. Nguyen & Vítor Castro & Justine Wood, 2022. "Political environment and financial crises," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 417-438, January.
    17. Rungmaitree, Pattamon & Boateng, Agyenim & Ahiabor, Frederick & Lu, Qinye, 2022. "Political risk, hedge fund strategies, and returns: Evidence from G7 countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    18. Tarek A Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2019. "Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(4), pages 2135-2202.
    19. Wang, Fengrong & Mbanyele, William & Muchenje, Linda, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock liquidity: The mitigating effect of information disclosure," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    20. Belkhir, Mohamed & Grira, Jocelyn & Hassan, M. Kabir & Soumaré, Issouf, 2019. "Islamic banks and political risk: International evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 39-55.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecopol:v:33:y:2021:i:1:p:109-132. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0954-1985 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.