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Mecro-Economic Voting: Local Information and Micro-Perceptions of the Macro-Economy

Author

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  • Stephen Ansolabehere
  • Marc Meredith
  • Erik Snowberg

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="ecpo12040-abs-0001"> We develop an incomplete information theory of economic voting, where voters' information about macro-economic performance is determined by the economic conditions of people similar to themselves. We test our theory using both cross-sectional and time-series survey data. A novel survey instrument that asks respondents their numerical assessment of the unemployment rate confirms that individuals' economic information responds to the economic conditions of people similar to themselves. Furthermore, these assessments are correlated with individuals' vote choices. We also show in time-series data that state unemployment robustly correlates with evaluations of national economic conditions, and presidential support.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen Ansolabehere & Marc Meredith & Erik Snowberg, 2014. "Mecro-Economic Voting: Local Information and Micro-Perceptions of the Macro-Economy," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 380-410, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecopol:v:26:y:2014:i:3:p:380-410
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/ecpo.2014.26.issue-3
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/12b1pd86do8s6p35b4jqn66t0p is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Mattozzi, Andrea & Snowberg, Erik, 2018. "The right type of legislator: A theory of taxation and representation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 54-65.
    3. Francesco Drago & Roberto Galbiati & Francesco Sobbrio, 2020. "The Political Cost of Being Soft on Crime: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(6), pages 3305-3336.
    4. Christopher Gandrud & Mark Hallerberg, 2016. "Interpreting Fiscal Accounting Rules in the European Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 6228, CESifo.
    5. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/12b1pd86do8s6p35b4jqn66t0p is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Francesco Drago & Roberto Galbiati & Francesco Sobbrio, 2020. "The Political Cost of Being Soft on Crime: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(6), pages 3305-3336.
    7. Ortoleva, Pietro & Snowberg, Erik, 2015. "Are conservatives overconfident?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PB), pages 333-344.
    8. Arzu TEKTAS & Asli Deniz HELVACIOGLU & Abdulmecit KARATAS, 2016. "The Potential Impact Of Regional Beyond Gdp Indicators On Elections," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 65-72, June.
    9. Chase Foster & Jeffry Frieden, 2021. "Economic determinants of public support for European integration, 1995–2018," European Union Politics, , vol. 22(2), pages 266-292, June.
    10. Kaba, Mustafa, 2022. "Who buys vote-buying? How, how much, and at what cost?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 98-124.
    11. Andrew J. Healy & Mikael Persson & Erik Snowberg, 2016. "Digging into the Pocketbook: Evidence on Economic Voting from Income Registry Data Matched to a Voter Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 6171, CESifo.
    12. Lionel Page & Daniel G. Goldstein, 2016. "Subjective beliefs about the income distribution and preferences for redistribution," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 47(1), pages 25-61, June.
    13. Suss, Joel H., 2023. "Higher income individuals are more generous when local economic inequality is high," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119632, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Italo Colantone & Piero Stanig, 2017. "The Trade Origins of Economic Nationalism: Import Competition and Voting Behavior in Western Europe," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1749, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    15. Brännlund, Anton, 2021. "Zero per cent accountability? How low interest rates save governments from electoral defeats," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    16. Italo Colantone & Piero Stanig, 2016. "Global Competition and Brexit," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1644, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

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