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The Role of Economic Growth in the Fertility Transition in Western Europe: Econometric Evidence

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  • Winegarden, C R
  • Wheeler, Mark

Abstract

A "revisionist" view of the European fertility transition has challenged the previously accepted causal roles of economic forces. The authors' contribution has been to construct and test an econometric model in which economic growth causes fertility change. They find that rising per capita incomes raised birth rates up to estimated turning points and thereafter exerted negative effects. This finding is partly consistent with the revisionist view: economic growth apparently did not cause the emergence of historical fertility declines, which antedated the turning points. However, in the later phases of the transition, economic growth accelerated the fertility down-trend. Copyright 1992 by The London School of Economics and Political Science.

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  • Winegarden, C R & Wheeler, Mark, 1992. "The Role of Economic Growth in the Fertility Transition in Western Europe: Econometric Evidence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 59(236), pages 421-435, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:59:y:1992:i:236:p:421-35
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    Cited by:

    1. A. Prskawetz & G. Feichtinger & M. Luptacik & A. Milik & F. Wirl & F. Hof & W. Lutz, 1999. "Endogenous growth of population and income depending on resource and knowledge," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 14(4), pages 305-331, December.
    2. Justin Doran, 2012. "An analysis of the interdependence of demographic factors, labour effort and economic growth in Ireland," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(3), pages 221-237, February.
    3. George Hondroyiannis & Evangelia Papapetrou, 1999. "Fertility choice and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the U.S," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 5(1), pages 108-120, February.
    4. George Hondroyiannis, 2010. "Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 33-50, March.
    5. J. David Hacker, 2016. "Ready, Willing, and Able? Impediments to the Onset of Marital Fertility Decline in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(6), pages 1657-1692, December.
    6. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2001. "Demographic changes, labor effort and economic growth: empirical evidence from Greece," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 169-188, February.
    7. Alexia Prskawetz & Gunter Steinmann & Gustav Feichtinger, 1998. "A model on the escape from the Malthusian trap," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 11(4), pages 535-550.
    8. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2005. "Fertility and output in Europe: new evidence from panel cointegration analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 143-156, March.

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