IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecnote/v50y2021i1ne12174.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Life with habit and expectation: A new explanation of equity premium puzzle

Author

Listed:
  • James P. Cover
  • Boyi Zhuang

Abstract

Previous writers have attempted to resolve the equity premium puzzle by employing a utility function that depends on current consumption minus (or relative to) past habit consumption. This paper points out that an individual's current utility may also depend upon how well off in the recent past he or she had expected to be today. Hence we add the concept “expectation formation” to the utility modification term in a model with a habit‐formation utility function. We apply the model to the equity premium puzzle and find that it is able to fit the data with a relatively low coefficient of relative risk aversion. Furthermore, we introduce an updated data sample and apply different values of discounting factors, and find that in all circumstances, the model is able to generate coefficients of risk aversion that are consistent with theory. Hence we conclude that the model is able to resolve the equity premium puzzle.

Suggested Citation

  • James P. Cover & Boyi Zhuang, 2021. "Life with habit and expectation: A new explanation of equity premium puzzle," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 50(1), February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecnote:v:50:y:2021:i:1:n:e12174
    DOI: 10.1111/ecno.12174
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecno.12174
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/ecno.12174?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Meyer, 2013. "Estimating discount factors for public and private goods and testing competing discounting hypotheses," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 133-173, April.
    2. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    3. Grishchenko, Olesya V., 2010. "Internal vs. external habit formation: The relative importance for asset pricing," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 176-194, May.
    4. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1992. "Have Postwar Economic Fluctuations Been Stabilized?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 993-1005, September.
    5. Abel, Andrew B, 1990. "Asset Prices under Habit Formation and Catching Up with the Joneses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 38-42, May.
    6. Xiaohong Chen & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2009. "Land of addicts? an empirical investigation of habit-based asset pricing models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1057-1093.
    7. Johannes Abeler & Armin Falk & Lorenz Goette & David Huffman, 2011. "Reference Points and Effort Provision," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(2), pages 470-492, April.
    8. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    9. David E. Bell, 1985. "Disappointment in Decision Making Under Uncertainty," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 33(1), pages 1-27, February.
    10. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 2003. "The equity premium in retrospect," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 889-938, Elsevier.
    11. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
    12. Astrid Matthey, 2008. "Yesterday's expectation of tomorrow determines what you do today: The role of reference-dependent utility from expectations," Jena Economics Research Papers 2008-003, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    13. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    14. Cover, James P. & Pecorino, Paul, 2005. "The length of US business expansions: When did the break in the data occur?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 452-471, September.
    15. Constantinides, George M, 1990. "Habit Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 519-543, June.
    16. Shane Frederick & George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue, 2002. "Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 351-401, June.
    17. Botond Koszegi & Matthew Rabin, 2009. "Reference-Dependent Consumption Plans," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 909-936, June.
    18. Graham Loomes & Robert Sugden, 1986. "Disappointment and Dynamic Consistency in Choice under Uncertainty," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(2), pages 271-282.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qiang Dai & Olesya V. Grishchenko, 2014. "An Empirical Investigation of Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Models with Stochastic Habit Formation," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(01), pages 1-34.
    2. Gürtler, Marc & Hartmann, Nora, 2004. "The equity premium puzzle and emotional asset pricing," Working Papers FW10V3, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institute of Finance.
    3. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "Financial Markets and the Real Economy," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-101, July.
    4. Stuart Hyde & Mohamed Sherif, 2005. "Consumption Asset Pricing Models: Evidence From The Uk," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(3), pages 343-363, June.
    5. Eduard Dubin & Olesya V. Grishchenko & Vasily Kartashov, 2012. "Habit formation heterogeneity: Implications for aggregate asset pricing," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. George M. Constantinides, 2006. "Market Organization And The Prices Of Financial Assets," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(s1), pages 1-23, September.
    7. Dreyer, Johannes K. & Schneider, Johannes & Smith, William T., 2013. "Saving-based asset-pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3704-3715.
    8. Yu Chen & Thomas Cosimano & Alex Himonas, 2010. "Continuous time one-dimensional asset-pricing models with analytic price–dividend functions," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 42(3), pages 461-503, March.
    9. Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present, and Future," NBER Working Papers 11401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Sialm, Clemens, 2006. "Stochastic taxation and asset pricing in dynamic general equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 511-540, March.
    11. George M. Constantinides, 2002. "Rational Asset Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1567-1591, August.
    12. Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present and Future," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(2), pages 217-238, June.
    13. Merella, Vincenzo & Satchell, Stephen E., 2022. "By force of confidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    14. Ludvigson, Sydney C., 2013. "Advances in Consumption-Based Asset Pricing: Empirical Tests," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 799-906, Elsevier.
    15. J. Bradford DeLong & Konstantin Magin, 2009. "The U.S. Equity Return Premium: Past, Present, and Future," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-208, Winter.
    16. Rajnish Mehra, 2003. "The Equity Premium: Why is it a Puzzle?," NBER Working Papers 9512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Kakeu, Johnson & Nguimkeu, Pierre, 2017. "Habit formation and exhaustible resource risk-pricing," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-12.
    18. Daria Pignalosa, 2021. "The Euler Equation Approach: Critical Implications of Recent Developments in the Theory of Intertemporal Choice," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 15(1), pages 1-43, June.
    19. Li, Minqiang, 2010. "Asset Pricing - A Brief Review," MPRA Paper 22379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Stavros Panageas & Nicolae Garleanu, 2008. "Yooung, Old, Conservative and Bold: The implications of finite lives and heterogeneity for asset prices," 2008 Meeting Papers 409, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecnote:v:50:y:2021:i:1:n:e12174. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0391-5026 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.