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Stock Market Fluctuations and Money Demand in Italy, 1913–2003

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  • Massimo Caruso

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of stock market fluctuations on money demand in Italy from a long‐run perspective. The money demand function estimated by Muscatelli and Spinelli (2000) for a long time span is utilized as a benchmark, adding to the specification information on share prices from the Milan Stock Exchange Reform of 1913 to recent years. For a shorter time period (1938–2003), annual observations on stock market capitalization and turnover velocity are also considered. The empirical findings suggest that stock market fluctuations help to explain temporary movements in liquidity preference, rather than its secular patterns. Overall, a positive association emerges between an index of stock market prices that includes dividends and real money balances; however, the estimated long‐run relationship is unstable. In a dynamic, short‐term specification of money demand, the estimated coefficient of deflated stock prices is positive, and therefore compatible with a wealth effect, in the years 1913–1980, while in the last two decades a substitution effect has prevailed and the correlation between money and share prices has been negative. This is likely to reflect a change in financial structure and the increasing role of opportunity costs defined over a wider range of assets. These results are confirmed by data on stock market capitalization. Moreover, in the recent period, stock market turnover and money growth are positively correlated.

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  • Massimo Caruso, 2006. "Stock Market Fluctuations and Money Demand in Italy, 1913–2003," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 35(1), pages 1-47, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecnote:v:35:y:2006:i:1:p:1-47
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0391-5026.2006.00157.x
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    3. Litsios, Ioannis, 2013. "Exchange rate determination and equity prices: Evidence from the UK," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 115-128.
    4. Hwang, Jen-Te & Wen, Min, 2024. "Electronic payments and money demand in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 47-64.
    5. Chaido Dritsaki & Melina Dritsaki, 2020. "The Long-run Money Demand Function: Empirical Evidence from Italy," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 186-195.
    6. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alaa M. Soliman, 2013. "Stock Prices and Monetary Policy: An Impulse Response Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(3), pages 701-709.
    7. Zuo, Haomiao & Park, Sung Y., 2011. "Money demand in China and time-varying cointegration," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 330-343, September.
    8. Sauro Mocetti, 2012. "Educational choices and the selection process: before and after compulsory schooling," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 189-209, February.
    9. Vittorio Daniele & Pasquale Foresti & Oreste Napolitano, 2017. "The stability of money demand in the long-run: Italy 1861–2011," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(2), pages 217-244, May.

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