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What Caused the Asian Crises: An Early Warning System Approach

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  • A. Berg
  • C. Pattillo

Abstract

type="main" xml:lang="en"> We estimate a simple probit model of the probability of balance-of-payments crises over a panel of developing countries through 1995. We then forecast crisis probabilities for 1997. We find that a simple model composed of four traditional macroeconomic variables and one ‘second generation’ variable performs well in predicting the Asia crises. The Thai and Malaysian crises had predominantly first-generation features, while the crises in Korea and Indonesia are, to some extent, predictable largely on the basis of our second-generation variable. (J.E.L.: F31, F47).

Suggested Citation

  • A. Berg & C. Pattillo, 1999. "What Caused the Asian Crises: An Early Warning System Approach," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 28(3), pages 285-334, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecnote:v:28:y:1999:i:3:p:285-334
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