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Can The President Really Affect Economic Growth? Presidential Effort And The Political Business Cycle

Author

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  • Chris Rohlfs
  • Ryan Sullivan
  • Robert McNab

Abstract

Presidential elections are often seen as referendums on the health of the economy; however, little evidence exists on the president's ability to influence gross domestic product (GDP). This study examines the effect of the incentive to be reelected and the resulting increase in presidential effort on GDP growth. Growth is found to rise in reelection years for first‐term presidents after 1932 and to fall in election years before 1932, when reelection was uncommon, and for second‐term presidents generally. This effect is largest for high‐quality presidents—who probably have the highest return to effort—and is spread across multiple sectors of the economy. (JEL D78, D72, E32, J24)

Suggested Citation

  • Chris Rohlfs & Ryan Sullivan & Robert McNab, 2015. "Can The President Really Affect Economic Growth? Presidential Effort And The Political Business Cycle," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(1), pages 240-257, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:53:y:2015:i:1:p:240-257
    DOI: 10.1111/ecin.12111
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chiu, Eric M.P., 2020. "Reexamining the Macroeconomic Policy Cycle in Taiwan: Evidence from the Central Bank’s Monetary Reaction Function," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 61(2), pages 89-110, December.
    2. Gersbach, Hans & Tejada, Oriol, 2018. "A Reform Dilemma in polarized democracies," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 148-158.
    3. De Witte, Kristof & Geys, Benny & Schönhage, Nanna Lauritz, 2018. "Strategic public policy around population thresholds," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 46-58.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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