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Demand Constraints on Agricultural Growth in East and Southern Africa: A General Equilibrium Analysis

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  • Xinshen Diao
  • Paul Dorosh

Abstract

This article analyses demand constraints on agricultural growth in seven countries of East and Southern Africa using an applied general equilibrium framework. It finds that both traditional and non-traditional export crops have limited potential to raise incomes because of demand constraints (for traditional exports) or a relatively small base (for non-traditional exports). The best prospects for agriculture-led growth remain in the food sector, where domestic demand represents a large and growing market. Improvements in market efficiency and simultaneous growth in the livestock sectors can help spur demand further and avert falls in prices. Achieving rapid gains in farm incomes, however, also requires investment in rural infrastructure to reduce marketing costs, and demand- enhancing growth in the non-agricultural sector to spur demand. Copyright 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Xinshen Diao & Paul Dorosh, 2007. "Demand Constraints on Agricultural Growth in East and Southern Africa: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 25(3), pages 275-292, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:devpol:v:25:y:2007:i:3:p:275-292
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    Cited by:

    1. Douillet, Mathilde, 2011. "Which trade integration scheme can best help Sub-Saharan Africa develop and export more processed agricultural goods?:," IFPRI discussion papers 1119, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Muriithi, Beatrice W. & Matz, Julia Anna, 2014. "Smallholder Participation in the Commercialisation of Vegetables: Evidence from Kenyan Panel Data," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 53(2), pages 1-28, May.
    3. Xinshen Diao & Derek Headey & Michael Johnson, 2008. "Toward a green revolution in Africa: what would it achieve, and what would it require?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 539-550, November.
    4. Charles B. Moss & Samba Mbaye & Anwar Naseem & James F. Oehmke, 2018. "Did the Plan Sénégal Emergent Affect Cropping Decisions in the Senegal River Basin?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-17, July.
    5. Dzanku, Fred M., 2015. "Household-specific food price differentials and high-value crop production in rural Ghana," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 73-82.
    6. Mathilde Douillet, 2012. "Trade policies and agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa Comparative analysis in a Computable General Equilibrium framework [Politiques commerciales et agriculture en Afrique Sub-Saharienne : analyse c," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-03676037, HAL.
    7. Van den Broeck, Goedele & Maertens, Miet, 2017. "Moving Up or Moving Out? Insights into Rural Development and Poverty Reduction in Senegal," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 95-109.
    8. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/45eb019724sn6sg9melpggksl is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Mathilde Douillet, 2012. "Trade policies and agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa: Comparative analysis in a Computable General Equilibrium framework," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/45eb019724s, Sciences Po.
    10. Boone, Catherine, 2017. "Sons of the soil conflict in Africa: institutional determinants of ethnic conflict over land," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 69794, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Olwande, John & Mathenge, Mary K., 2012. "Market Participation among Poor Rural Households in Kenya," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126711, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Mbegallo, Franco John, 2016. "Movements, Determinants And Effect Of Agriculture Commercialization Among Smallholders Farmers In Tanzania," Research Theses 276438, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    13. Diao, Xinshen & Fan, Shenggen & Headey, Derek & Johnson, Michael & Nin Pratt, Alejandro & Yu, Bingxin, 2008. "Accelerating Africa's food production in response to rising food prices: Impacts and requisite actions," IFPRI discussion papers 825, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    14. Douillet, Mathilde, 2012. "Trade policy reforms in the new agricultural context: Is regional integration a priority for Sub-Saharan African countries agricultural-led industrialization? Insights from a global computable general," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126546, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/45eb019724sn6sg9melpggksl is not listed on IDEAS
    16. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/45eb019724sn6sg9melpggksl is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Olwande, John & Mathenge, Mary K., 2011. "Market Participation Among Poor Rural Households in Kenya," Working Papers 202599, Egerton University, Tegemeo Institute of Agricultural Policy and Development.
    18. World Bank, 2009. "Macedonia - Moving to Faster and More Inclusive Growth A Country Economic Memorandum : Main Report and Annex," World Bank Publications - Reports 3067, The World Bank Group.
    19. Douillet, Mathilde, 2012. "Trade and agricultural policies in Malawi: Not all policy reform is equally good for the poor," MPRA Paper 40948, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Diao, Xinshen & Hazell, Peter & Thurlow, James, 2010. "The Role of Agriculture in African Development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 1375-1383, October.
    21. Ehlert, Christoph R. & Mithöfer, Dagmar & Waibel, Hermann, 2014. "Worker welfare on Kenyan export vegetable farms," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 66-73.
    22. Douillet, Mathilde, 2012. "Trade and agricultural policies in Malawi: Not all policy reform is equally good for the poor," Conference papers 332277, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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