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Aid and Fiscal Deficits: Lessons from Uganda on the Implications for Macroeconomic Management and Fiscal Sustainability

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Brownbridge
  • Emmanuel Tumusiime-Mutebile

Abstract

This article contributes to the ongoing debate on the macroeconomic management of large aid inflows to low-income countries by analysing lessons drawn from Uganda, where the fiscal deficit before grants, which was largely aid-funded, doubled to over 12% of GDP in the early 2000s. It focuses on the implications of the widening fiscal deficit for monetary policy, the real exchange rate, debt sustainability and the vulnerability of the budget to fiscal shocks, and argues that large fiscal deficits, even when funded predominantly by aid, risk undermining macroeconomic objectives and long-run fiscal sustainability. Copyright 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Brownbridge & Emmanuel Tumusiime-Mutebile, 2007. "Aid and Fiscal Deficits: Lessons from Uganda on the Implications for Macroeconomic Management and Fiscal Sustainability," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 25(2), pages 193-213, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:devpol:v:25:y:2007:i:2:p:193-213
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher Adam & Stephen O’Connell & Edward Buffie, 2007. "Monetary Policy Rules For Manging Aid Surges In Africa," WEF Working Papers 0016, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
    2. Mumtaz Hussain & Andrew Berg & Shekhar Aiyar, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Management of Increased Aid: Policy Lessons from Recent Experience," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 491-509, August.
    3. Hisali, Eria & Ddumba-Ssentamu, John, 2013. "Foreign aid and tax revenue in Uganda," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 356-365.
    4. Joseph Mawejje & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2022. "The determinants and cyclicality of fiscal policy: Empirical evidence from East Africa," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 50-70.
    5. Thomas Bwire & Oliver Morrissey & Tim Lloyd, 2013. "Foreign Aid, Public Sector and Private Consumption: a Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Approach," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2013-094, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Joseph Mawejje & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Uganda's fiscal policy reforms: What have we learned?," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 89-107, June.
    7. Mayr, Karin, 2010. "Optimal Deficit and Debt in the Presence of Foreign Aid," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 19-27, January.
    8. Mumtaz Hussain & Andrew Berg & Shekhar Aiyar, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Management of Increased Aid: Policy Lessons from Recent Experience," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(s1), pages 491-509, August.
    9. Arsham Reisinezhad, 2020. "Absorption capacity and Natural Resource Curse," Working Papers halshs-03012661, HAL.
    10. Christopher Adam & Stephen O'Connell & Edward Buffie & Catherine Pattillo, 2009. "Monetary Policy Rules for Managing Aid Surges in Africa," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(s1), pages 464-490, August.
    11. Thomas Bwire & Oliver Morrissey & Tim Lloyd, 2013. "A Timeseries Analysis of the Impact of Foreign Aid on Central Government's Fiscal Budget in Uganda," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2013-101, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Bwire, Thomas & Lloyd, Tim & Morrissey, Oliver, 2013. "Foreign Aid, Public Sector and Private Consumption: A Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Approach," WIDER Working Paper Series 094, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    13. Bwire, Thomas & Lloyd, Tim & Morrissey, Oliver, 2013. "A Timeseries Analysis of the Impact of Foreign Aid on Central Government's Fiscal Budget in Uganda," WIDER Working Paper Series 101, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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