IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/coecpo/v41y2023i3p532-554.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The influence of fiscal policy uncertainty on corporate total factor productivity: Evidence from Chinese public companies

Author

Listed:
  • Rongwu Zhang
  • Lan Luo
  • Jianjun Du

Abstract

This paper uses China's public companies to test the influence of fiscal policy uncertainty on corporate total factor productivity. The study finds that fiscal policy uncertainty has a negative impact on the total factor productivity, and the effect of conservative tax avoidance, a mediating variable between the two, is found more significant for non‐state‐owned and non‐recession‐stage enterprises. The study further finds that facing fiscal policy uncertainty, companies reduce R&D investment, which will deteriorate productivity. The overall results show that if the government maintains relatively stable fiscal policies, it will positively improve corporate total factor productivity, even in a longer period.

Suggested Citation

  • Rongwu Zhang & Lan Luo & Jianjun Du, 2023. "The influence of fiscal policy uncertainty on corporate total factor productivity: Evidence from Chinese public companies," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(3), pages 532-554, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:41:y:2023:i:3:p:532-554
    DOI: 10.1111/coep.12606
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.12606
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/coep.12606?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huang, Yun & Luk, Paul, 2020. "Measuring economic policy uncertainty in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    2. Sha, Yezhou & Kang, Chenlei & Wang, Zilong, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and mergers and acquisitions: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 590-600.
    3. Guariglia, Alessandra & Liu, Xiaoxuan & Song, Lina, 2011. "Internal finance and growth: Microeconometric evidence on Chinese firms," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 79-94, September.
    4. Chen, Shuping & Chen, Xia & Cheng, Qiang & Shevlin, Terry, 2010. "Are family firms more tax aggressive than non-family firms?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 41-61, January.
    5. Acharya, Viral & Xu, Zhaoxia, 2017. "Financial dependence and innovation: The case of public versus private firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 223-243.
    6. Han, Xiaomei & Wang, Jie & Cheng, Hanxiu, 2021. "The effect of corporate tax avoidance on salary distribution——Empirical evidence from publicly listed companies in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    7. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2014_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Joscha Beckmann & Robert L Czudaj & Georgios Kouretas, 2021. "Fiscal policy uncertainty and its effects on the real economy: German evidence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(4), pages 1516-1535.
    9. Dang, Dandan & Fang, Hongsheng & He, Minyuan, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty, tax quotas and corporate tax burden: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-1.
    10. Guo, Di & Guo, Yan & Jiang, Kun, 2016. "Government-subsidized R&D and firm innovation: Evidence from China," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 1129-1144.
    11. Song, Malin & Peng, Licheng & Shang, Yuping & Zhao, Xin, 2022. "Green technology progress and total factor productivity of resource-based enterprises: A perspective of technical compensation of environmental regulation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    12. Olley, G Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 1996. "The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1263-1297, November.
    13. Bradshaw, Mark & Liao, Guanmin & Ma, Mark (Shuai), 2019. "Agency costs and tax planning when the government is a major Shareholder," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 255-277.
    14. Chansog (Francis) Kim & Liandong Zhang, 2016. "Corporate Political Connections and Tax Aggressiveness," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(1), pages 78-114, March.
    15. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Keith Kuester & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2015. "Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(11), pages 3352-3384, November.
    16. Li, Kaifeng & Guo, Zhaoxuan & Chen, Qi, 2021. "The effect of economic policy uncertainty on enterprise total factor productivity based on financial mismatch: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    17. K. Hung Chan & Phyllis L. L. Mo & Amy Y. Zhou & Steven Cahan, 2013. "Government ownership, corporate governance and tax aggressiveness: evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 53(4), pages 1029-1051, December.
    18. Anzuini, Alessio & Rossi, Luca & Tommasino, Pietro, 2020. "Fiscal policy uncertainty and the business cycle: Time series evidence from Italy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    19. Wang, Yizhong & Chen, Carl R. & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 227-243.
    20. He, Feng & Ma, Yaming & Zhang, Xiaojie, 2020. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect corporate Innovation?–Evidence from China listed companies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 225-239.
    21. Lin, Yongjia & Fu, Xiaoqing & Fu, Xiaolan, 2021. "Varieties in state capitalism and corporate innovation: Evidence from an emerging economy," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    22. Xuejun Jin & Ziqing Chen & Xiaolan Yang, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(5), pages 1291-1318, March.
    23. Yu, Jian & Shi, Xunpeng & Guo, Dongmei & Yang, Longjian, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and firm carbon emissions: Evidence using a China provincial EPU index," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    24. My Nguyen & Justin Hung Nguyen, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm tax avoidance," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(4), pages 3935-3978, December.
    25. Cull, Robert & Li, Wei & Sun, Bo & Xu, Lixin Colin, 2015. "Government connections and financial constraints: Evidence from a large representative sample of Chinese firms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 271-294.
    26. Wen, Huwei & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zhou, Fengxiu, 2022. "How does fiscal policy uncertainty affect corporate innovation investment? Evidence from China's new energy industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    27. Tingting Ying & Brian Wright & Wei Huang, 2017. "Ownership structure and tax aggressiveness of Chinese listed companies," International Journal of Accounting & Information Management, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 25(3), pages 313-332, August.
    28. Hasan, Iftekhar & Wu, Qiang & Zhang, Hao & Hoi, Chun-Keung (Stan), 2014. "Beauty is in the eye of the beholder: The effect of corporate tax avoidance on the cost of bank loans," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2014, Bank of Finland.
    29. Zumian Xiao & Hongfeng Peng & Zheyao Pan, 2022. "Innovation, external technological environment and the total factor productivity of enterprises," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(1), pages 3-29, March.
    30. Shen, Huayu & Hou, Fei & Peng, Miaowei & Xiong, Hao & Zuo, Haohao, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate tax avoidance: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    31. James Levinsohn & Amil Petrin, 2003. "Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(2), pages 317-341.
    32. Hou, Xiaohui & Wang, Tengyu & Ma, Caoyuan, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate fraud," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 97-110.
    33. Huayu Shen & Man Zhang & Runxin Liu & Fei Hou, 2021. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Innovation - Evidence From China," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(1), pages 1-7.
    34. Hanlon, Michelle & Slemrod, Joel, 2009. "What does tax aggressiveness signal? Evidence from stock price reactions to news about tax shelter involvement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-2), pages 126-141, February.
    35. Demir, Ender & Ersan, Oguz, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and cash holdings: Evidence from BRIC countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 189-200.
    36. Hanlon, Michelle & Heitzman, Shane, 2010. "A review of tax research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 127-178, December.
    37. Xu, Bing & Sendra-García, Javier & Gao, Yanxia & Chen, Xiaohui, 2020. "Driving total factor productivity: Capital and labor with tax allocation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    38. Ren, Xiaohang & Zhang, Xiao & Yan, Cheng & Gozgor, Giray, 2022. "Climate policy uncertainty and firm-level total factor productivity: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    39. Dhawan, Anirudh & Ma, Liangbo & Kim, Maria H., 2020. "Effect of corporate tax avoidance activities on firm bankruptcy risk," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2).
    40. Huseyin Gulen & Mihai Ion, 2016. "Editor's Choice Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 523-564.
    41. Wen, Fenghua & Li, Cui & Sha, Han & Shao, Liuguo, 2021. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect corporate risk-taking? Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    42. Hasan, Iftekhar & Hoi, Chun Keung (Stan) & Wu, Qiang & Zhang, Hao, 2014. "Beauty is in the eye of the beholder: The effect of corporate tax avoidance on the cost of bank loans," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 109-130.
    43. Xu, Zhaoxia, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty, cost of capital, and corporate innovation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    44. Hasan, Mostafa Monzur & Lobo, Gerald J. & Qiu, Buhui, 2021. "Organizational capital, corporate tax avoidance, and firm value," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Bakhsh, Satar & Zhao, Zhongxiu, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability: Threshold effect of institutional quality and competition," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    2. Shen, Huayu & Hou, Fei & Peng, Miaowei & Xiong, Hao & Zuo, Haohao, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate tax avoidance: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Cui, Xin & Wang, Chunfeng & Sensoy, Ahmet & Liao, Jing & Xie, Xiaochen, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and green innovation: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    4. Mahmud Hossain & Gerald J. Lobo & Santanu Mitra, 2023. "Firm-level political risk and corporate tax avoidance," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 295-327, January.
    5. Athira, A. & Ramesh, Vishnu K., 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and tax avoidance: International evidence," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    6. Feng, Gen-Fu & Zheng, Mingbo, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and renewable energy innovation: International evidence," Innovation and Green Development, Elsevier, vol. 1(2).
    7. Mo Chen & Xuhua Hu & Jijian Zhang & Zhe Xu & Guang Yang & Zenan Sun, 2023. "Are Firms More Willing to Seek Green Technology Innovation in the Context of Economic Policy Uncertainty? —Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-24, September.
    8. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Hashmi, Shujahat Haider & Bakhsh, Satar, 2022. "Non-linear nexus between economic policy uncertainty and bank lending," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 657-679.
    9. Wen, Qiang & Zhang, Teng, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and industrial pollution: The role of environmental supervision by local governments," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    10. Fangjun Wang & Shuolei Xu & Junqin Sun & Charles P. Cullinan, 2020. "Corporate Tax Avoidance: A Literature Review And Research Agenda," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 793-811, September.
    11. Ren, Xiaohang & An, Yaning & Jin, Chenglu & Yan, Cheng, 2024. "Weathering the policy storm: How climate strategy volatility shapes corporate total factor productivity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    12. Kovermann, Jost & Velte, Patrick, 2019. "The impact of corporate governance on corporate tax avoidance—A literature review," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-1.
    13. Wang, Yonglian & Wang, Lijun & Pan, Changchun & Hong, Songzhi, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and price pass-through effect of exchange rate in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    14. Cui, Xin & Wang, Chunfeng & Liao, Jing & Fang, Zhenming & Cheng, Feiyang, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty exposure and corporate innovation investment: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    15. Guan, Jialin & Xu, Huijuan & Huo, Da & Hua, Yechun & Wang, Yunfeng, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate innovation: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    16. Suyi Zheng & Jiandong Wen, 2023. "How Does Firm-Level Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect Corporate Innovation? Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-23, April.
    17. Jie Sun & Lewis Makosa & Jinkun Yang & Fangyuan Yin & Lovemore Sitsha, 2023. "Does corporate tax planning mitigate financial constraints? Evidence from China," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 510-527, January.
    18. Haque, Tariq & Pham, Thu Phuong & Yang, Jiaxin, 2023. "Geopolitical risk, financial constraints, and tax avoidance," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    19. Shen, Yuxin & Xu, Hanwen & Yu, Shuangli & Xu, Wei & Shen, Yongjian, 2022. "Air pollution and tax avoidance: New evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 402-420.
    20. Jun, Xiao & Huang, Wenwei & Guo, Yiting & Cao, Yuqiang & Lu, Meiting, 2023. "Why does economic policy uncertainty increase firm-level pollutant emission?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:41:y:2023:i:3:p:532-554. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/weaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.