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Power Supply Expansion And The Nuclear Option In Poland

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  • CHRIS MARNAY
  • STEVEN J. PICKLE

Abstract

This paper describes the construction of a data set of the Polish power sector for use with the Elfin capacity expansion planning model. Using Elfin, the paper derives four scenarios and some sensitivities for new generating capacity construction plans. These scenarios simulate choices among several generic generating technologies made to achieve the lowest overall net present cost of operating the power system through 2015. Key results include: (i) single‐cycle natural gas‐fired combustion turbines prove highly attractive for Poland because of its urgent need for peaking capacity, (ii) nuclear power cannot be excluded from consideration for Poland on economic grounds alone, (iii) the effectiveness of conservation to reduce airborne emissions is limited under scenarios in which nuclear generation is adopted, and (iv) the attractiveness of nuclear is shown to be highly sensitive to assumptions on some uncertain inputs, suggesting the need for a more detailed analysis before policy implications can be drawn.

Suggested Citation

  • Chris Marnay & Steven J. Pickle, 1998. "Power Supply Expansion And The Nuclear Option In Poland," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 16(1), pages 109-121, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:16:y:1998:i:1:p:109-121
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1465-7287.1998.tb00505.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Meyers, Stephen & Salayf, Jurgen & Schipper, Lee, 1994. "Energy use in a transitional economy The case of Poland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(8), pages 699-713, August.
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