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Urban Systems: Understanding and Predicting the Spatial Distribution of China's Population

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  • Pengfei Li
  • Ming Lu

Abstract

With urbanization and population migration, some Chinese cities fall into decline whereas others prosper. Using nighttime light data, we redefine the city based on economic function and evaluate the city size distribution in representative countries. The results provide evidence not only for Zipf's law, but also for a distortion in China's current city size distribution. This study proposes a feasible method to predict urban population distribution based on the role of geographical factors in regional development, following the idea of spatial equilibrium. This prediction suggests that the divergence of city size in China tends to be pronounced, with inter‐regional income disparity being narrowed and the city size distribution following Zipf's law. The Chinese government should further relax restrictions on population inflow into large cities and prepare for more migration in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Pengfei Li & Ming Lu, 2021. "Urban Systems: Understanding and Predicting the Spatial Distribution of China's Population," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 29(4), pages 35-62, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:29:y:2021:i:4:p:35-62
    DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12380
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    2. Linlin Duan & Lulu Song & Wanjun Wang & Xiaomei Jian & Reinout Heijungs & Wei-Qiang Chen, 2024. "Urbanization inequality: evidence from vehicle ownership in Chinese cities," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Ning Jia & Huiyong Zhong, 2022. "The Causes and Consequences of China's Municipal Amalgamations: Evidence from Population Redistribution," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 30(4), pages 174-200, July.
    4. Xin Fan & Shan Jin & Zeyu Chen, 2023. "Who Benefits from Domestic Market Integration?," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 24(6), pages 2083-2109, August.

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