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Zombie Firms and Debt Accumulation: A Theoretical Framework and Chinese Experience

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  • He Zhu
  • Fan He
  • Shennan Wang
  • Qianlin Ye
  • Chen Liang

Abstract

In recent years, as China has grappled with rising debt and broad economic restructure, the prevalence of zombie firms has become a critical problem. This paper provides a theoretical framework illustrating the rationale behind the occurrence of zombie firms from the perspective of banks. We develop differential equations to model a bank's expectation and the ex ante estimate that underlies its decision to refinance an insolvent borrower. An optimistic expectation is essential in zombie lending and is intrinsic to the countercyclical pattern of zombie firms. Our model also predicts that debt can build up to an unsustainable level if recovery of profitability is sluggish or the initial debt burden is too high. Examining the Chinese experience of zombie firms over 2007–2017, this paper highlights two findings. First, the share of zombie firms among Shanghai and Shenzhen A‐share listed companies demonstrates a countercyclical pattern. Second, the positive correlation between zombie share and debt accumulation across manufacturing sectors sheds light on the link between zombie firms and the rising corporate debt in China. To deal with the “zombie” problem, the government should carefully weigh its policies to avoid further distortions because the occurrence of zombie firms may be inevitable and impossible to eliminate.

Suggested Citation

  • He Zhu & Fan He & Shennan Wang & Qianlin Ye & Chen Liang, 2019. "Zombie Firms and Debt Accumulation: A Theoretical Framework and Chinese Experience," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 27(6), pages 104-126, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:27:y:2019:i:6:p:104-126
    DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12298
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    Cited by:

    1. Shangming Yang & Yanjiang Zhang & Jinyuan Zhang & Bochao Zhang, 2024. "Technology accessibility and the local government's incentive to aid zombie firms in China," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(2), pages 501-523, April.
    2. Shen, Yu & Ren, Meixu & Zhao, Jingmei, 2023. "Bank competition and zombie company: Empirical evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 297-318.
    3. Marian Nehrebecki, 2023. "Zombification in Poland in particular during COVID-19 pandemic and low interest rates," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 54(2), pages 153-190.
    4. Hao Ding, 2024. "Can common institutional ownership inhibit the formation of zombie firms? Evidence from China," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 38(1), pages 34-56, May.
    5. Ren, Meixu & Zhao, Jinxuan & Zhao, Jingmei, 2023. "The crowding-out effect of zombie companies on fixed asset investment: Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Ren, Meixu & Zhao, Jinxuan & Zhao, Jingmei, 2023. "Why is it difficult for Chinese companies to operate across regions in China?—Evidence from zombie companies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    7. Yumeng Wu & Haiying Pan, 2022. "Can pay‐performance sensitivity cure zombie firms? Evidence from China," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 1080-1090, June.
    8. Sadia Rashid & Kanwal Iqbal Khan & Adeel Nasir & Tayyiba Rashid, 2022. "Unveiling living dead: characteristics and consequences of zombie firms," Cogent Business & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 2121240-212, December.

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