IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/chinae/v17y2009i2p110-124.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Rise and Fall of the First Financial Futures Market in China: The Case of Chinese Government Bond Futures

Author

Listed:
  • Chao Chen
  • Zhong‐guo Zhou

Abstract

This paper studies the rise and fall of the first financial futures market in China. We compare the characteristics in the Chinese Government bond futures market with those in the US T‐bond futures market. They differ in market design and structure, market governance, margin requirements, position limits, delivery process, and the way in which the settlement price is calculated. Furthermore, with a unique dataset, we show that prior to maturities of government bond futures, traders began to accumulate significant amounts of long positions for several selected contracts without the intention to offset, forcing short position holders to either purchase deliverable bonds or offset futures at highly inflated prices, causing higher market volatility and price disequilibrium in both spot and futures markets. Arbitrage opportunity arises and the market eventually collapses. The lessons learned from the suspension of the Chinese Government bond futures market offer an invaluable learning experience.

Suggested Citation

  • Chao Chen & Zhong‐guo Zhou, 2009. "Rise and Fall of the First Financial Futures Market in China: The Case of Chinese Government Bond Futures," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(2), pages 110-124, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:17:y:2009:i:2:p:110-124
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1749-124X.2009.01145.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-124X.2009.01145.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1749-124X.2009.01145.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen Figlewski, 1984. "Margins and market integrity: Margin setting for stock index futures and options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(3), pages 385-416, September.
    2. Robert A. Jarrow, 2008. "Market Manipulation, Bubbles, Corners, and Short Squeezes," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 6, pages 105-130, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Ronald W. Anderson, 1984. "The regulation of futures contract innovations in the united states," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(3), pages 297-332, September.
    4. Merrick, John Jr & Naik, Narayan Y. & Yadav, Pradeep K., 2005. "Strategic trading behavior and price distortion in a manipulated market: anatomy of a squeeze," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 171-218, July.
    5. Allen, Franklin & Qian, Jun & Qian, Meijun, 2005. "Law, finance, and economic growth in China," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 57-116, July.
    6. Jordan, Bradford D. & Kuipers, David R., 1997. "Negative option values are possible: The impact of Treasury bond futures on the cash U.S. Treasury market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 67-102, October.
    7. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1993. "Treasury Auction Bids and the Salomon Squeeze," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1403-1419, September.
    8. Linda N. Edwards & Franklin R. Edwards, 1984. "A legal and economic analysis of manipulation in futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(3), pages 333-366, September.
    9. Bekaert, Geert & Wu, Guojun, 2000. "Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42.
    10. Figlewski, Stephen, 1984. "Hedging Performance and Basis Risk in Stock Index Futures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 657-669, July.
    11. Pirrong, Stephen Craig, 1995. "The Self-Regulation of Commodity Exchanges: The Case of Market Manipulation," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(1), pages 141-206, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ruan, Qingsong & Zhou, Mi & Yin, Linsen & Lv, Dayong, 2021. "Hedging effectiveness of Chinese Treasury bond futures: New evidence based on nonlinear analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 565(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Merrick, John Jr & Naik, Narayan Y. & Yadav, Pradeep K., 2005. "Strategic trading behavior and price distortion in a manipulated market: anatomy of a squeeze," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 171-218, July.
    2. Cumming, Douglas & Dannhauser, Robert & Johan, Sofia, 2015. "Financial market misconduct and agency conflicts: A synthesis and future directions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 150-168.
    3. William Quinn, 2019. "Squeezing the bears: cornering risk and limits on arbitrage during the ‘British bicycle mania’, 1896–8," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1286-1311, November.
    4. Carole Comerton-Forde & Tālis J. Putniņš, 2014. "Stock Price Manipulation: Prevalence and Determinants," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(1), pages 23-66.
    5. Pirrong, Craig, 2017. "The economics of commodity market manipulation: A survey," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 1-17.
    6. Aitken, Michael & Cumming, Douglas & Zhan, Feng, 2015. "Exchange trading rules, surveillance and suspected insider trading," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 311-330.
    7. Aitken, Michael & Cumming, Douglas & Zhan, Feng, 2013. "Exchange trading rules, surveillance and insider trading," CFS Working Paper Series 2013/15, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    8. Kadıoğlu, Eyüp & Frömmel, Michael, 2022. "Manipulation in the bond market and the role of investment funds: Evidence from an emerging market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    9. Tālis J. Putniņš, 2012. "Market Manipulation: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 952-967, December.
    10. Eun Jung Lee & Yu Kyung Lee & Ryumi Kim, 2024. "Profitability and herding of trade-based pump-and-dump manipulation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(20), pages 2375-2385, April.
    11. Cumming, Douglas & Johan, Sofia & Li, Dan, 2011. "Exchange trading rules and stock market liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 651-671, March.
    12. Rydqvist, Kristian & Wu, Mark, 2016. "Pre-auction inventory and bidding behavior: Evidence from Canadian Treasury auctions," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 78-102.
    13. Giambona, Erasmo & Golec, Joseph, 2010. "Strategic trading in the wrong direction by a large institutional insider," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-22, January.
    14. Owen Lamont, 2004. "Go Down Fighting: Short Sellers vs. Firms," NBER Working Papers 10659, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Lee, Eun Jung & Eom, Kyong Shik & Park, Kyung Suh, 2013. "Microstructure-based manipulation: Strategic behavior and performance of spoofing traders," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 227-252.
    16. Robert Jarrow & Scott Fung & Shih-Chuan Tsai, 2018. "An empirical investigation of large trader market manipulation in derivatives markets," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 331-374, October.
    17. Aharon, David Y. & Kizys, Renatas & Umar, Zaghum & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Did David win a battle or the war against Goliath? Dynamic return and volatility connectedness between the GameStop stock and the high short interest indices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    18. Takayama, Shino, 2021. "Price manipulation, dynamic informed trading, and the uniqueness of equilibrium in sequential trading," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    19. Yu Huang & Yao Cheng, 2015. "Stock manipulation and its effects: pump and dump versus stabilization," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 791-815, May.
    20. Sofia Johan, 2008. "Global Market Surveillance," American Law and Economics Review, American Law and Economics Association, vol. 10(2), pages 454-506.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:17:y:2009:i:2:p:110-124. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwepacn.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.