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Robust Monetary Framework for China

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  • Takatoshi Ito

Abstract

China faces rising current account surpluses and foreign reserves. Maintaining the fixed exchange rate runs the risk of overheating of the economy. It is desirable to pursue greater flexibility of the exchange rate regime in the short run, and gradual liberalization of capital account transactions in the medium run. Proper sequencing of various steps is recommended to prevent financial crises. Japan's transition from the dollar peg to a more flexible exchange rate system in 1971–1973 is considered to be a mistake, whereas the gradual capital account opening from the mid‐1970s to mid‐1990s is considered a success. The present study also analyzes Korea's mistake in opening its capital markets too far ahead of exchange rate flexibility, and liberalizing short‐term capital rather than long‐term capital. The challenge before China is similar to Japan's of 1969–1970, in the sense that the transition from the dollar peg is inevitable and desirable for the country, but decisive actions with proper sequencing are important. (Edited by Xiaoming Feng)

Suggested Citation

  • Takatoshi Ito, 2006. "Robust Monetary Framework for China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(5), pages 32-47, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:14:y:2006:i:5:p:32-47
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1749-124X.2006.00037.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    2. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 1999. "Introduction to "Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Development Countries: Theory, Practice, and Policy Issues (NBER-EASE volume 7)"," NBER Chapters, in: Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries: Theory, Practice, and Policy Issues, pages 1-8, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ito, Takatoshi & Krueger, Anne O. (ed.), 1999. "Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226386737.
    4. Thom, Rodney & Walsh, Brendan, 2002. "The effect of a currency union on trade: Lessons from the Irish experience," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1111-1123, June.
    5. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 1999. "Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries: Theory, Practice, and Policy Issues," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_99-1.
    6. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 08-45.
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    1. Ito, Takatoshi, 2017. "A new financial order in Asia: Will a RMB bloc emerge?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 232-257.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld, 2007. "The Renminbi's Dollar Peg at the Crossroads," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(S1), pages 29-56, December.

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