IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/buecrs/v70y2018i2p150-164.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Random Shock Uncertainty And Investment Reversibility: Real Option Framework

Author

Listed:
  • Xue Cui
  • Takashi Shibata

Abstract

This paper examines, in the presence of random shock, how changes in reversibility of investment affect a firm's optimal investment strategies including the investment timing (trigger) and quantity. Existing results do not consider random shock, where the quantity is independent of the degree of reversibility and the investment trigger is always decreasing with the degree of reversibility. In contrast, we show that with random shock, the quantity exhibits an inverse U†shape, and the investment trigger is not always monotonically decreasing with the degree of reversibility. Additionally, we show that the firm undertakes a smaller quantity with random shock than without random shock for any degree of reversibility. Finally, we find that the presence of random shock decreases firm value, which implies that random shock is costly for firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Xue Cui & Takashi Shibata, 2018. "Random Shock Uncertainty And Investment Reversibility: Real Option Framework," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(2), pages 150-164, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:buecrs:v:70:y:2018:i:2:p:150-164
    DOI: 10.1111/boer.12133
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.12133
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/boer.12133?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Abel, Andrew B. & Eberly, Janice C., 1999. "The effects of irreversibility and uncertainty on capital accumulation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 339-377, December.
    2. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C., 1999. "The Timing and Intensity of Investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 57-77, January.
    3. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    4. Sarkar, Sudipto, 2000. "On the investment-uncertainty relationship in a real options model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 219-225, February.
    5. McDonald, Robert L & Siegel, Daniel R, 1985. "Investment and the Valuation of Firms When There Is an Option to Shut Down," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(2), pages 331-349, June.
    6. Wong, Kit Pong, 2010. "The effects of irreversibility on the timing and intensity of lumpy investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 97-102, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Letifi, N. & Prigent, J.-L., 2014. "On the optimality of funding and hiring/firing according to stochastic demand: The role of growth and shutdown options," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 410-422.
    2. Wong, Kit Pong, 2011. "Progressive taxation and the intensity and timing of investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 100-108, January.
    3. Davis, Graham A. & Cairns, Robert D., 2017. "The odd notion of “reversible investment”," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 172-180.
    4. Wong, Kit Pong, 2011. "Progressive taxation and the intensity and timing of investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 100-108.
    5. Shibata, Takashi & Wong, Kit Pong, 2019. "Investment under uncertainty with variable costly reversibility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 14-28.
    6. Ma, Jinrun & Niu, Yingjie, 2019. "The timing and intensity of investment under ambiguity," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 318-330.
    7. Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2010. "The effect of mean reversion on entry and exit decisions under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 725-742, April.
    8. Shibata, Takashi & Nishihara, Michi, 2018. "Investment timing, reversibility, and financing constraints," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 771-796.
    9. Sarkar, Sudipto, 2021. "The uncertainty-investment relationship with endogenous capacity," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    10. Kanniainen, Juho, 2007. "Rothschild-Stiglitz's definition of increasing risk and the relationship between volatility and risk premium," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 363-374.
    11. Yigal Menashe, 2005. "Is the Firm-Level Relationship between Uncertainty and Irreversible Investment Non- Linear?," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2005.12, Bank of Israel.
    12. Juho Kanniainen, 2007. "Rothschild–Stiglitz's definition of increasing risk and the relationship between volatility and risk premium," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(4), pages 363-374.
    13. repec:dgr:rugsom:00e44 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Óscar Gutiérrez, 2021. "Real options and the perverse effect of interest rates on investment timing," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3984-3996, July.
    15. Lukas, Elmar & Thiergart, Sascha, 2019. "The interaction of debt financing, cash grants and the optimal investment policy under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 276(1), pages 284-299.
    16. Cui, Xue & Shibata, Takashi, 2017. "Investment strategies, reversibility, and asymmetric information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 263(3), pages 1109-1122.
    17. Bo, H. & Lensink, R., 2000. "Is the investment-uncertainty relationship non-linear? : an emperical [i.e. empirical] analysis for the Netherlands," Research Report 00E44, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    18. Timo Willershausen & Sascha H. Mölls & Karl-Heinz Schild, 2007. "Unsicherheit und der Wert realer Optionen," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 314-332, May.
    19. Kit Wong, 2010. "On the neutrality of debt in investment intensity," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 335-356, July.
    20. Sodal, Sigbjorn, 2006. "Entry and exit decisions based on a discount factor approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 1963-1986, November.
    21. Strebulaev, Ilya A. & Whited, Toni M., 2012. "Dynamic Models and Structural Estimation in Corporate Finance," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 6(1–2), pages 1-163, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:buecrs:v:70:y:2018:i:2:p:150-164. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0307-3378 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.