IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/buecrs/v61y2009i1p47-72.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Business Failures And Macroeconomic Factors In The Uk

Author

Listed:
  • Jia Liu

Abstract

We examine the interactions between business failures and macroeconomic aggregates, and specifically the accounts of policy‐induced changes in the macroeconomy for the observed fluctuations of UK business failures in the period 1966–2003 using the vector error‐correction model (VECM). The results demonstrate that macroeconomic aggregates, i.e., interest rate, credit, profits, inflation and business births, exert differential impacts on business failures both in the short run and in the long run. The study reveals that structural changes in the financial and real sectors during the examined period have made an impact on the way in which the macroeconomy affects business failures. In particular, business failures are increasingly reacting to monetary policy changes in the post‐1980 period. Furthermore, the shocks to business failures can generate large fluctuations in macroeconomic aggregates, suggesting the importance of corporate balance sheets in financial stability and economic growth. The paper's findings carry policy implications that are related to the survival of firms in distress and finance‐driven business cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Jia Liu, 2009. "Business Failures And Macroeconomic Factors In The Uk," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 47-72, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:buecrs:v:61:y:2009:i:1:p:47-72
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8586.2008.00294.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8586.2008.00294.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1467-8586.2008.00294.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrick Bolton & Xavier Freixas, 2006. "Corporate Finance and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 829-870.
    2. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1994. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(2), pages 309-340.
    3. Gilchrist, Simon & Himmelberg, Charles P., 1995. "Evidence on the role of cash flow for investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 541-572, December.
    4. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "A corporate balance-sheet approach to currency crises," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 6-30, November.
    5. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    6. Hunter, John & Isachenkova, Natalia, 2006. "Aggregate economy risk and company failure: An examination of UK quoted firms in the early 1990s," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 911-919, November.
    7. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February.
    8. Whited, Toni M, 1992. "Debt, Liquidity Constraints, and Corporate Investment: Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1425-1460, September.
    9. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
    10. Oliver Hart & John Moore, 1998. "Default and Renegotiation: A Dynamic Model of Debt," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(1), pages 1-41.
    11. Storey, David J & Jones, A M, 1987. "New Firm Formation--A Labour Market Approach to Industrial Entry," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 34(1), pages 37-51, February.
    12. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1993. "The role of credit market imperfections in the monetary transmission mechanism: arguments and evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-5, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1978. "The Household Balance Sheet and the Great Depression," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(4), pages 918-937, December.
    14. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
    15. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    16. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    17. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
    18. Robert E. Carpenter & Steven M. Fazzari & Bruce C. Petersen, 1994. "Inventory (Dis)Investment, Internal Finance Fluctuations, and the Business Cycle," Macroeconomics 9401001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    20. Wadhwani, Sushil B, 1986. "Inflation, Bankruptcy, Default Premia and the Stock Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(381), pages 120-138, March.
    21. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    22. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    23. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    24. Gordon, Robert J, 1988. "The Role of Wages in the Inflation Process," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 276-283, May.
    25. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:3:p:939-978 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Robert E. Carpenter & Steven M. Fazzari & Bruce C. Petersen, 1994. "Inventory Investment, Internal-Finance Fluctuation, and the Business Cycle," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(2), pages 75-138.
    27. Mr. Qaizar Hussain & Clas Wihlborg, 1999. "Corporate Insolvency Procedures and Bank Behavior: A Study of Selected Asian Economies," IMF Working Papers 1999/135, International Monetary Fund.
    28. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:3:p:747-69 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    30. Julian R. Franks & Walter N. Torous, 1989. "An Empirical Investigation of U.S. Firms in Reorganization," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 747-769, July.
    31. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-276, June.
    32. Platt, Harlan D. & Platt, Marjorie B., 1994. "Business cycle effects on state corporate failure rates," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 113-127, May.
    33. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Venancio Tauringana & Ishmael Tingbani & Godwin Okafor & Widin B. Sha'ven, 2021. "Terrorism and global business performance," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5636-5658, October.
    2. Tingbani, Ishmael & Okafor, Godwin & Tauringana, Venancio & Zalata, Alaa Mansour, 2019. "Terrorism and country-level global business failure," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 430-440.
    3. McInerney, Niall, 2019. "Macroprudential Policy, Banking and the Real Estate Sector," MPRA Paper 91777, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Fasano, Francesco & Javier Sánchez-Vidal, F. & La Rocca, Maurizio, 2022. "The role of government policies for Italian firms during the COVID-19 crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    5. ben Jabeur, Sami & Mefteh-Wali, Salma & Carmona, Pedro, 2021. "The impact of institutional and macroeconomic conditions on aggregate business bankruptcy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 108-119.
    6. Sanjay Sehgal & Ritesh Kumar Mishra & Ajay Jaisawal, 2021. "A search for macroeconomic determinants of corporate financial distress," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 435-461, December.
    7. Rémi Stellian & Jenny P. Danna‐Buitrago, 2020. "Financial distress, free cash flow, and interfirm payment network: Evidence from an agent‐based model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 598-616, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    2. Smant, David / D.J.C., 2002. "Bank credit in the transmission of monetary policy: A critical review of the issues and evidence," MPRA Paper 19816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Stein, Jeremy C., 2003. "Agency, information and corporate investment," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 111-165, Elsevier.
    4. Stöß, Elmar, 1996. "Enterprises' financing structure and their response to monetary policy stimuli: An analysis based on the Deutsche Bundesbank's corporate balance sheet statistics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1996,09e, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Diemo Dietrich, 2003. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Heterogeneous Finance Decisions: A Model of Hidden Effort Choice and Financial Intermediation," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 4(3), pages 365-388, August.
    6. Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2010. "Credit supply - Identifying balance-sheet channels with loan applications and granted loans," Working Paper Series 1179, European Central Bank.
    7. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1998. "Capital-Market Imperfections and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 193-225, March.
    8. Denise Côté & Christopher Graham, 2007. "Corporate Balance Sheets in Developed Economies: Implications for Investment," Staff Working Papers 07-24, Bank of Canada.
    9. Auel, Matias Carlos & de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira, 2011. "Macroeconomic relevance of credit channels: Evidence from an emerging economy under inflation targeting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 965-979, May.
    10. Hovakimian, Gayané, 2011. "Financial constraints and investment efficiency: Internal capital allocation across the business cycle," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 264-283, April.
    11. Mr. Yungsan Kim & Woon Gyu Choi, 2001. "Has Inventory Investment Been Liquidity-Constrained? Evidence From U.S. Panel Data," IMF Working Papers 2001/122, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Alexandros Kontonikas & Alexandros Kostakis, 2013. "On Monetary Policy and Stock Market Anomalies," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(7-8), pages 1009-1042, September.
    13. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José‐Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2014. "Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty‐Three Million Bank Loans Say About the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk‐Taking?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 463-505, March.
    14. repec:bla:germec:v:4:y:2003:i::p:365-388 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Ramey, Valerie, 1993. "How important is the credit channel in the transmission of monetary policy?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 1-45, December.
    16. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José-Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2017. "“In the Short Run Blasé, In the Long Run Risqué”," Schmalenbach Business Review, Springer;Schmalenbach-Gesellschaft, vol. 18(3), pages 181-226, August.
    17. Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2017. "‘In the Short Run Blasé, in the Long Run Risqué’. On the Effects of Monetary Policy on Bank Credit Risk-Taking in the Short versus Long Run," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 181-226.
    18. Hubbard, R Glenn & Kuttner, Kenneth N & Palia, Darius N, 2002. "Are There Bank Effects in Borrowers' Costs of Funds? Evidence from a Matched Sample of Borrowers and Banks," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 559-581, October.
    19. Sanjay Sehgal & Ritesh Kumar Mishra & Ajay Jaisawal, 2021. "A search for macroeconomic determinants of corporate financial distress," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 435-461, December.
    20. Calomiris, Charles W. & Himmelberg, Charles P. & Wachtel, Paul, 1995. "Commercial paper, corporate finance, and the business cycle: a microeconomic perspective," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 203-250, June.
    21. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:buecrs:v:61:y:2009:i:1:p:47-72. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0307-3378 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.