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Futures Market Efficiency, the Unbiasedness Hypothesis and Variance-Bounds Tests: The Case of the FTSE-100 Futures Contract

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  • Antoniou, Antonios
  • Holmes, Phil

Abstract

The efficiency of futures markets is critical to their price discovery role. This paper investigates the joint hypothesis of market efficiency and unbiasedness of futures prices for the FTSE-100 stock index futures contract. Unlike previous studies, it tests for both long-run and short-run efficiency using cointegration and error correction models. Variance-bounds tests are developed and utilized for examining the question of efficiency. Results show that the market is efficient and provides an unbiased estimate of future spot prices for one and two months away from expiration. However, for three and more months away from expiration this is not the case, which has implications for the users of this market. Copyright 1996 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Board of Trustees of the Bulletin of Economic Research

Suggested Citation

  • Antoniou, Antonios & Holmes, Phil, 1996. "Futures Market Efficiency, the Unbiasedness Hypothesis and Variance-Bounds Tests: The Case of the FTSE-100 Futures Contract," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 115-128, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:buecrs:v:48:y:1996:i:2:p:115-28
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    Cited by:

    1. Barbi, Massimiliano & Romagnoli, Silvia, 2018. "Skewness, basis risk, and optimal futures demand," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 14-29.
    2. Dimitris Kenourgios, 2005. "Testing Efficiency And The Unbiasedness Hypothesis Of The Emerging Greek Futures Market," Finance 0512015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Darren Butterworth & Phil Holmes, 2005. "The Hedging Effectiveness of U.K. Stock Index Futures Contracts Using an Extended Mean Gini Approach: Evidence for the FTSE 100 and FTSE Mid250 Contracts," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 9(3-4), pages 131-160, September.
    4. Piyapas Tharavanij, 2017. "Unbiasedness Hypothesis and Efficiency Test of Thai Stock Index Futures," SAGE Open, , vol. 7(2), pages 21582440177, April.
    5. Laws, Jason & Thompson, John, 2004. "The efficiency of financial futures markets: Tests of prediction accuracy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 155(2), pages 284-298, June.
    6. Ying-Foon Chow, 2001. "Arbitrage, Risk Premium, and Cointegration Tests of the Efficiency of Futures Markets," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5-6), pages 693-713.

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