IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ausecr/v54y2021i2p179-189.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling the Reserve Bank of Australia's Policy Decisions and the Case for a Negative Cash Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Timothy Anderson
  • John Hawkins

Abstract

Taylor's eponymous ‘rule’ models how central banks set policy rates in response to inflation and output. We estimate a Taylor rule for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), modifying it to make it more realistic, while retaining its simplicity. The model implies that if the Bank responds to recent forecasts as it has on average since 1995, the cash rate could have briefly gone negative in 2020. But the RBA is wary of negative cash rates. There are grounds for caution; the economic outlook is particularly uncertain and the economy's response to negative rates is uncharted territory.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy Anderson & John Hawkins, 2021. "Modelling the Reserve Bank of Australia's Policy Decisions and the Case for a Negative Cash Rate," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 54(2), pages 179-189, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:54:y:2021:i:2:p:179-189
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.12406
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12406
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1467-8462.12406?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fabo, Brian & Jančoková, Martina & Kempf, Elisabeth & Pástor, Ľuboš, 2021. "Fifty shades of QE: Comparing findings of central bankers and academics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 1-20.
    2. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Marvin Goodfriend, 2000. "Overcoming the zero bound on interest rate policy," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 1007-1057.
    4. Tom Cusbert, 2017. "Estimating the NAIRU and the Unemployment Gap," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 13-22, June.
    5. Ruchir Agarwal & Miles Kimball, 2019. "Enabling Deep Negative Rates to Fight Recessions: A Guide," IMF Working Papers 2019/084, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Schmelzing, Paul, 2020. "Eight centuries of global real interest rates, R-G, and the ‘suprasecular’ decline, 1311–2018," Bank of England working papers 845, Bank of England.
    7. Brian Fabo & Martina Jancokova & Elisabeth Kempf & Lubos Pastor, 2020. "Fifty Shades of QE: Conflicts of Interest in Economic Research," Working Papers 2020-128, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    8. Buiter, Willem H., 2009. "Negative nominal interest rates: Three ways to overcome the zero lower bound," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 213-238, December.
    9. Hartmann,Philipp & Huang,Haizhou & Schoenmaker,Dirk (ed.), 2018. "The Changing Fortunes of Central Banking," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108423847, January.
    10. Lopez, Jose A. & Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2020. "Why have negative nominal interest rates had such a small effect on bank performance? Cross country evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    11. Lawrence H Summers, 2014. "U.S. Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis, and the Zero Lower Bound," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 49(2), pages 65-73, April.
    12. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009. "The Fed's monetary policy response to the current crisis," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may22.
    13. George A. Kahn, 2012. "The Taylor Rule and the Practice of Central Banking," Book Chapters, in: Evan F. Koenig & Robert Leeson & George A. Kahn (ed.), The Taylor Rule and the Transformation of Monetary Policy, chapter 3, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    14. Alexander Ballantyne & Tom Cusbert & Richard Evans & Rochelle Guttmann & Jonathan Hambur & Adam Hamilton & Elizabeth Kendall & Rachael McCririck & Gabriela Nodari & Daniel M. Rees, 2020. "MARTIN Has Its Place: A Macroeconometric Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(314), pages 225-251, September.
    15. C. A. E. Goodhart, 2018. "The Changing Fortunes of Central Banking," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Douglas D Evanoff & A G Malliaris & George Kaufman (ed.), Public Policy & Financial Economics Essays in Honor of Professor George G Kaufman for His Lifelong Contributions to the Profession, chapter 4, pages 33-46, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. Boris Hofmann & Bilyana Bogdanova, 2012. "Taylor rules and monetary policy: a global "Great Deviation"?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    17. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Nguyen, Quynh, 2023. "Daily monetary policy reactions to the pandemic: The Australian case," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 24-32.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Levrero, Enrico Sergio, 2022. "The Taylor Rule and its Aftermath: Elements for an Interpretation along Classical-Keynesian lines," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP59, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione "Piero Sraffa".
    2. Signe Krogstrup, 2017. "Monetary Policy Accommodation at the Lower Bound," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 52(1), pages 7-14, January.
    3. Pierre L. Siklos, 2020. "Looking into the Rear-View Mirror: Lessons from Japan for the Eurozone and the U.S?," IMES Discussion Paper Series 20-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    4. Pelin Ilbas & Øistein Røisland & Tommy Sveen, 2013. "The Influence of the Taylor rule on US monetary policy," Working Paper Research 241, National Bank of Belgium.
    5. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "The zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1071-1101, July.
    6. Batini, Nicoletta & Harrison, Richard & Millard, Stephen P., 2003. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11-12), pages 2059-2094, September.
    7. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Nicolò, Giovanni, 2018. "Keynesian economics without the Phillips curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 137-150.
    8. Saad Ahmad, 2020. "Identifying a robust policy rule for the Fed's response to financial stress," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 565-578, October.
    9. Yulei Luo & Jun Nie & Eric Young, 2015. "Robust permanent income in general equilibrium," Research Working Paper RWP 15-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    10. John B. Taylor & Volker Wieland, 2016. "Finding the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate in a Fog of Policy Deviations," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 51(3), pages 147-154, July.
    11. Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2021. "Zero Lower Bound and negative interest rates: Choices for monetary policy in the UK," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 200-229.
    12. Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The future of monetary aggregates in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1029-1059, July.
    13. Hess Chung & Jean-Philippe Laforte & David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2012. "Have We Underestimated the Likelihood and Severity of Zero Lower Bound Events?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 47-82, February.
    14. Charles Bean, 2016. "Living with Low for Long," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(592), pages 507-522, May.
    15. Bruno Albuquerque, 2019. "One Size Fits All? Monetary Policy and Asymmetric Household Debt Cycles in U.S. States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1309-1353, August.
    16. Muneesh Kapur & Michael Debabrata Patra, 2012. "Alternative Monetary Policy Rules for India," IMF Working Papers 2012/118, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Boehm, Christoph E. & House, Christopher L., 2019. "Optimal Taylor rules when targets are uncertain," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 274-286.
    18. Frederic Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2002. "A Decade of Inflation Targeting in the World: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.),Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 4, pages 171-220, Central Bank of Chile.
    19. Dirk Niepelt, 2024. "Money and Banking with Reserves and CBDC," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(4), pages 2505-2552, August.
    20. Stefano Neri & Giuseppe Ferrero, 2017. "Monetary policy in a low interest rate environment," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 392, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:54:y:2021:i:2:p:179-189. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mimelau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.