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The Economic Demography Transition: Is China's ‘Not Rich, First Old’ Circumstance a Barrier to Growth?

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  • Lauren A. Johnston

Abstract

Around 1980 China adopted a reformist economic agenda and a restrictive population policy. China's consequential ‘getting old before rich’ discourse is herein advanced into the ‘economic demography transition’ and economic demography matrix (EDM). EDM transition analysis of 182 economies from 1996 to 2016 identifies: i) China to be one of many ‘poor‐old’ economies; and ii) a majority of countries recently entering the high‐income group were first old. These results question China's 1980 s‐based fears that early demographic transition would stall development and also call for enhanced nuance in understanding economic and demographic change links.

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  • Lauren A. Johnston, 2019. "The Economic Demography Transition: Is China's ‘Not Rich, First Old’ Circumstance a Barrier to Growth?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 52(4), pages 406-426, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:52:y:2019:i:4:p:406-426
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.12325
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