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State of Confusion: Economic Policy Uncertainty and International Trade and Investment

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  • Stephen Kirchner

Abstract

Uncertainty about economic policy in Australia and the United States has increased episodically since the Global Financial Crisis. Existing research focuses on the effects on economic activity, employment and investment. I extend this work to examine the effect of policy uncertainty on global trade volumes, industrial production and cross‐border trade and investment for Australia and the United States. Australia's relative resilience to policy uncertainty shocks reflects a larger role for the exchange rate in intermediating foreign shocks and the absence of a recession in Australia during the sample period considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen Kirchner, 2019. "State of Confusion: Economic Policy Uncertainty and International Trade and Investment," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 52(2), pages 178-199, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:52:y:2019:i:2:p:178-199
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.12319
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    Cited by:

    1. Dervis Kirikkaleli & Ibrahim Darbaz, 2022. "New insights into an old issue: modelling the U.S. food prices," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 675-689, December.
    2. Clougherty, Joseph A. & Zhang, Nan, 2023. "Antitrust policy and inward FDI: The impact of policy risk and uncertainty on U.S. inward-FDI flows," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(4).
    3. Chen, Xikai & Le, Cao Hoang Anh & Shan, Yaowen & Taylor, Stephen, 2020. "Australian policy uncertainty and corporate investment," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    4. John Oliver, 2020. "The Economic Policy Uncertainty and Firm Investment in Germany," Journal of Accounting, Business and Finance Research, Scientific Publishing Institute, vol. 10(1), pages 34-41.
    5. Shen, Huayu & Liang, Yue & Li, Hanwen & Liu, Jie & Lu, Guangxi, 2021. "Does geopolitical risk promote mergers and acquisitions of listed companies in energy and electric power industries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    6. Zhaohua Zhang & Roshini Brizmohun & Gang Li & Ping Wang, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty undermine stability of agricultural imports? Evidence from China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(3), pages 1-17, March.

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