IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ausecp/v54y2015i2p104-120.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS): Is It a Curse or a Blessing for the Australian Home Loan Market? A Natural Experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Munirul H. Nabin
  • Sukanto Bhattacharya
  • Shuddhaswatta Rafiq

Abstract

type="main"> The Australian home loan market has seen a significant and persistent boom over more than two decades. The extant literature exploring the underlying factors explaining this boom has predominantly looked at the demand side rather than the supply side. In this paper, we look at a major supply-side issue, the introduction of mortgage-backed securities and its likely impact on the home loan market. In doing so, we have developed a mathematical model that theorises this likely relationship. Our mathematical model predicts possible existence of an unstable equilibrium in the home loan market in the presence of mortgage-backed securities. We have subsequently backed up our theoretical exercise with sound empirical evidence acquired and analysed as a natural experiment in the Australian scenario using quarterly market data on home loans and mortgage-backed securities data for a 36-year period from 1976 to 2012. Using unknown structural break tests, we have identified significant breaks around late 1992 to mid-1995, clearly indicating that there were significant changes in the housing market due to the introduction of mortgage-backed securities in early 1993. We have also performed a stability test confirming that under certain conditions this market can become unstable.

Suggested Citation

  • Munirul H. Nabin & Sukanto Bhattacharya & Shuddhaswatta Rafiq, 2015. "Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS): Is It a Curse or a Blessing for the Australian Home Loan Market? A Natural Experiment," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 104-120, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:54:y:2015:i:2:p:104-120
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/1467-8454.12044
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David M. Williams, 2009. "House prices and financial liberalisation in Australia," Economics Series Working Papers 432, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khan, Saleheen & Tahir, Mohammad Iqbal, 2013. "The dynamic links between energy consumption, economic growth, financial development and trade in China: Fresh evidence from multivariate framework analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 8-21.
    3. Bloch, Harry & Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Salim, Ruhul, 2012. "Coal consumption, CO2 emission and economic growth in China: Empirical evidence and policy responses," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 518-528.
    4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    5. Kristopher Gerardi & Adam Hale Shapiro & Paul S. Willen, 2007. "Subprime outcomes: risky mortgages, homeownership experiences, and foreclosures," Working Papers 07-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    6. Warnock, Veronica Cacdac & Warnock, Francis E., 2008. "Markets and housing finance," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 239-251, September.
    7. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    8. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hye, Qazi Muhammad Adnan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Leitão, Nuno Carlos, 2013. "Economic growth, energy consumption, financial development, international trade and CO2 emissions in Indonesia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 109-121.
    9. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    10. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    11. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    12. Shuddhasattwa Rafiq & Harry Bloch & Ruhul Salim, 2014. "Determinants of renewable energy adoption in China and India: a comparative analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(22), pages 2700-2710, August.
    13. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    14. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    15. Kenneth Ayotte & Stav Gaon, 2011. "Asset-Backed Securities: Costs and Benefits of "Bankruptcy Remoteness"," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(4), pages 1299-1335.
    16. Hall, Alastair R, 1994. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series with Pretest Data-Based Model Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 461-470, October.
    17. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    18. Rayna M Brown & Gregory Schwann & Callum Scott, 2008. "Personal Residential Real Estate Investment in Australia: Investor Characteristics and Investment Parameters," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(1), pages 139-173, March.
    19. John Broadbent, 2008. "Financial market innovation in Australia: implications for the conduct of monetary policy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial market developments and their implications for monetary policy, volume 39, pages 114-125, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Adrian Gepp & Kuldeep Kumar & Sukanto Bhattacharya, 2010. "Business failure prediction using decision trees," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(6), pages 536-555.
    21. David Miles & Vladimir Pillonca, 2008. "Financial innovation and European housing and mortgage markets," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 24(1), pages 145-175, spring.
    22. Luci Ellis, 2006. "Housing and Housing Finance: The View from Australia and Beyond," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2006-12, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bloch, Harry & Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Salim, Ruhul, 2015. "Economic growth with coal, oil and renewable energy consumption in China: Prospects for fuel substitution," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 104-115.
    2. Bhattacharya, Mita & Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Bhattacharya, Sankar, 2015. "The role of technology on the dynamics of coal consumption–economic growth: New evidence from China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 686-695.
    3. Farhani, Sahbi & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "The role of natural gas consumption and trade in Tunisia's output," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 677-684.
    4. Karaaslan, Abdulkerim & Çamkaya, Serhat, 2022. "The relationship between CO2 emissions, economic growth, health expenditure, and renewable and non-renewable energy consumption: Empirical evidence from Turkey," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 457-466.
    5. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh & Zakaria, Muhammad & Hurr, Maryam, 2017. "Carbon emission, energy consumption, trade openness and financial development in Pakistan: A revisit," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 185-192.
    6. Akadiri, Ada Chigozie & Akadiri, Seyi Saint & Gungor, Hasan, 2019. "The role of natural gas consumption in Saudi Arabia's output and its implication for trade and environmental quality," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 230-238.
    7. Hamid Ishfaq, 2023. "Nexus between Macro Economic Variables and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Inflows in India: Evidence from Time Series Analysis," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 26(1), pages 55-75.
    8. Zhihui Lv & Amanda M. Y. Chu & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "Modelling Economic Growth, Carbon Emissions, and Fossil Fuel Consumption in China: Cointegration and Multivariate Causality," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-35, October.
    9. Nepal, Rabindra & Paija, Nirash, 2019. "Energy security, electricity, population and economic growth: The case of a developing South Asian resource-rich economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 771-781.
    10. Muhammad SHAHBAZ & Smile DUBE, 2012. "Revisiting the Relationship between Coal Consumption and Economic Growth: Cointegration and Causality Analysis in Pakistan," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(1).
    11. Eléazar Zerbo, 2017. "Energy consumption and economic growth in Sub-Saharan African countries: Further evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 1720-1744.
    12. Adeel Saleem & Maqbool H. Sial & Ahmed Raza Cheema, 2023. "Does an asymmetric nexus exist between exports and economic growth in Pakistan? Recent evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 297-326, February.
    13. Chor Foon Tang & Hooi Hooi Lean, 2009. "The Effects Of Disaggregated Savings On Economic Growth In Malaysia - Generalised Variance Decomposition Analysis," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 04-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    14. Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Bekun, Festus Victor & Etokakpan, Mfonobong Udom & Driha, Oana M., 2019. "A road to enhancements in natural gas use in Iran: A multivariate modelling approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    15. Tang, Chor Foon & Tan, Eu Chye, 2013. "Exploring the nexus of electricity consumption, economic growth, energy prices and technology innovation in Malaysia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 297-305.
    16. Mrabet, Zouhair & Alsamara, Mouyad, 2017. "Testing the Kuznets Curve hypothesis for Qatar: A comparison between carbon dioxide and ecological footprint," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1366-1375.
    17. Chen, Pei-Fen & Chien, Mei-Se & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2011. "Dynamic modeling of regional house price diffusion in Taiwan," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 315-332.
    18. Hande Aksöz Yılmaz, 2020. "The Impact of Foreign Trade on Immigration from Turkey to Germany: ARDL Bounds Test Approach," Journal of Economy Culture and Society, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 62(62), pages 123-143, December.
    19. Banu Demirhan, 2016. "Financial Development and Investment Amount Nexus: A Case Study of Turkey," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(3), pages 127-134, March.
    20. Ghosh, Sajal, 2010. "Examining carbon emissions economic growth nexus for India: A multivariate cointegration approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 3008-3014, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:54:y:2015:i:2:p:104-120. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0004-900X .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.