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Forecast Errors and Efficiency in the US Electricity Futures Market

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  • S. Gulay Avsar
  • Barry A. Goss

Abstract

In March 1996 the US introduced electricity futures contracts which provided for delivery at the California/Oregon border (COB) and Palo Verde switchyard. These were followed in July 1998 by contracts which provided for delivery of electrical energy into the Cinergy and Entergy systems, and in March 1999 by a contract for the Pennsylvania/New Jersey/Maryland (PJM) area. This paper employs the forecast error approach to study the informational efficiency of these markets (the model prediction and event studies approaches are not feasible). COB and Palo Verde spot and futures prices are stationary, while Cinergy spot and futures prices are I(1) and cointegrated (Entergy and PJM data were not utilised due to insufficient observations). All forecast errors, therefore, are stationary. Estimation is by instrumental variables in the presence of a lagged dependent variable and overlapping observations. For the period 1996 (04) to 1999 (12), with COB and Palo Verde data, the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) is rejected. This outcome is confirmed by cointegration of the COB and Palo Verde futures prices. A significant M‐GARCH term in the forecast error relationship for both contracts supports the view that a time‐varying risk premium was present. A significant negative relationship between forecast errors and volume for the COB contract suggests that agents were still learning the true model driving this market, and that Stein’s ‘Bayesian error’ was non‐zero. For the period 1998 (07) to 1999 (12), with COB, Palo Verde and Cinergy data, the EMH cannot be rejected. Finally, an attempt is made to relate this study to the recent electricity crisis in California.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Gulay Avsar & Barry A. Goss, 2001. "Forecast Errors and Efficiency in the US Electricity Futures Market," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 479-499, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:40:y:2001:i:4:p:479-499
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8454.00138
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    Cited by:

    1. Morales, Lucía & Hanly, Jim, 2018. "European power markets–A journey towards efficiency," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 78-85.
    2. Mara Madaleno & Carlos Pinho, 2010. "Hedging Performance and Multiscale Relationships in the German Electricity Spot and Futures Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-37, December.
    3. Torro, Hipolit, 2007. "Forecasting Weekly Electricity Prices at Nord Pool," International Energy Markets Working Papers 7437, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    4. Lester Hadsell, 2006. "A TARCH examination of the return volatility-volume relationship in electricity futures," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 893-901.
    5. Mr. Aasim M. Husain & Chakriya Bowman, 2004. "Forecasting Commodity Prices: Futures Versus Judgment," IMF Working Papers 2004/041, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Javier Garcia-Verdugo & Meliyara Sirex Consuegra, 2013. "Estimating functional efficiency in energy futures markets," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 2(3), pages 105-115.
    7. Tishler, A. & Woo, C.K., 2006. "Likely failure of electricity deregulation: Explanation with application to Israel," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 845-856.
    8. Capitán Herráiz, Álvaro & Rodríguez Monroy, Carlos, 2009. "Analysis of the efficiency of the Iberian power futures market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3566-3579, September.
    9. Horowitz, I. & Woo, C.K., 2006. "Designing Pareto-superior demand-response rate options," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1040-1051.
    10. Sezgen, Osman & Goldman, C.A. & Krishnarao, P., 2007. "Option value of electricity demand response," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 108-119.

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