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Export‐led Growth and Import Compression: Further Time Series Evidence From LDCs

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  • John Asafu‐Adjaye
  • Debasish Chakraborty

Abstract

This paper conducts tests of the export‐led growth and the import‐compression hypotheses for four less developed countries (LDCs) – India, Nigeria, Fiji and Papua New Guinea (PNG). Based on Johansen's multiple cointegration test preceded by unit root tests, we test for cointegration between real output, exports and imports. Non‐rejection of cointegration between the variables excludes the possibility of Granger non‐causality and suggests at least one way Granger causality. Real output, exports and imports are found to be cointegrated in two of the countries and the resulting error‐correction models suggest that Granger causality runs from exports and imports to real output in these cases. Exogeneity tests are conducted for exports with respect to real output. However, while the assumption of weak exogeneity is validated in two of the countries, the null hypothesis of super exogeneity is rejected. The test results therefore cast doubts on policy recommendations for the LDCs based on the export‐led growth hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • John Asafu‐Adjaye & Debasish Chakraborty, 1999. "Export‐led Growth and Import Compression: Further Time Series Evidence From LDCs," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 164-175, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:38:y:1999:i:2:p:164-175
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8454.00049
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    Cited by:

    1. Pushpa Trivedi & Narayan Chandra Pradhan, 2010. "Exports and Growth Nexus in India: An Econometric Analysis," Millennial Asia, , vol. 1(1), pages 97-121, January.
    2. Muhammad Shahbaz & Mohammad Mafizur Rahman, 2012. "The Dynamic of Financial Development, Imports, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Cointegration and Causality Analysis in Pakistan," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 13(2), pages 201-219, June.
    3. Christine Mutz & Thomas Ziesemer, 2008. "Simultaneous estimation of income and price elasticities of export demand, scale economies and total factor productivity growth for Brazil," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(22), pages 2921-2937.
    4. Ranjan Kumar Dash, 2009. "Revisited Export-Led Growth Hypothesis," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 10(2), pages 305-324, July.
    5. Mohammad Mafizur Rahman & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2013. "Do Imports and Foreign Capital Inflows Lead Economic Growth? Cointegration and Causality Analysis in Pakistan," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 14(1), pages 59-81, March.
    6. Soo Khoon Goh & Koi Nyen Wong & Chee Lam Yew, 2018. "Are Merchandise Exports and FDI Inflows an Engine of Growth for ASEAN-10 Countries? New Evidence Using the Pooled Mean Group Estimation Method," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 12(4), pages 414-430, November.
    7. Abhijit Sharma & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2003. "An Analysis of Exports and Growth in India: Some Empirical Evidence (1971-2001)," Working Papers 2003004, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2003.
    8. László Kónya & Jai Pal Singh, 2006. "Exports, Imports and Economic Growth in India," Working Papers 2006.06, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    9. Sanu, Md Sahnewaz, 2019. "Is the Export-led Growth Hypothesis Valid for India? Another Look at the Evidence," MPRA Paper 107903, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Sep 2019.
    10. Sahoo, Auro Kumar & Sahoo, Dukhabandhu & Sahu, Naresh Chandra, 2014. "Mining export, industrial production and economic growth: A cointegration and causality analysis for India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 27-34.
    11. Fadzil, Atikah & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Does export lead growth? evidence from Japan," MPRA Paper 109290, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. P. J. Dawson, 2005. "The export-income relationship: the case of India," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 5(1), pages 16-29, January.
    13. Bilas Vlatka & Bošnjak Mile & Franc Sanja, 2015. "Examining the Export-led Growth Hypothesis: The case of Croatia," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, Sciendo, vol. 61(3), pages 22-31, June.
    14. Julen Berasaluce & José Romero, 2015. "Exports, imports, FDI and GDP in the Republic of Korea: 1980-2014," Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos 2015-06, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.

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