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Projection of fossil fuel demands in Vietnam to 2050 and climate change implications

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  • Quang Minh Tran

Abstract

Over the past decade, Vietnam has emerged as one of the world's fastest growing economies. Fossil fuel use, which is a dominant energy source and vital for economic growth, have been increasing considerably. Undoubtedly, the projection of fossil fuel demand is essential for a better understanding of energy needs, fuel mix, and Vietnam's strategic development. This paper provides an outlook for coal, oil, and gas demand in Vietnam to 2050. The projection is based on the calibrated results from a hybrid model (that combines a GTAP‐ R version for resources, and a micro simulation approach) and an energy database. Under the baseline scenario (business as usual), from 2018 to 2050, the demand for coal, oil products, and gas are expected to increase by a factor of 2.47‐fold, 2.14‐fold, and 1.67‐fold, respectively. Emissions are also projected to increase. Because fossil fuels are the dominant source of carbon emissions in Vietnam, it follows, going forward, that an effective fuel‐mix strategy that encourages the development of renewables and energy efficiency is essential.

Suggested Citation

  • Quang Minh Tran, 2019. "Projection of fossil fuel demands in Vietnam to 2050 and climate change implications," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 208-221, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:asiaps:v:6:y:2019:i:2:p:208-221
    DOI: 10.1002/app5.274
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    Cited by:

    1. James Kaizuka, 2021. "Even Electric Trains Use Coal: Fixed and Relative Costs, Hidden Factors and Income Inequality in HSR Projects with Reference to Vietnam’s North–South Express Railway," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-29, December.
    2. Phuong Thao Nguyen, 2022. "Carbon emissions versus value-added in export-driven countries: case of Vietnam," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 11(1), pages 1-21, December.
    3. Rao, Amar & Kumar, Satish & Gupta, Prashant & Dash, Saumya Ranjan, 2024. "Quantifying the impact of interest rate volatility on Asian energy companies: A comparative study of fossil and renewable sectors," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

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