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Incorporating risk in the economic analysis of agronomic trials: fertilizer use on barley in Syria

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  • Ahmed Mazid
  • Elizabeth Bailey

Abstract

In the drier areas of Syria yields of barley, the principal crop, are low. Due to the variability in rainfall, fertilizer use is perceived as risky. Barley‐fertilizer trials have been conducted on farmer's fields over a period of four years to investigate whether the large yield response to fertilizer observed on research sites could be achieved under farmers' conditions. Data were pooled across years and sites and response functions estimated. Simple optimization analysis shows that economic optimum fertilizer rates vary considerably with rainfall and relative prices. Historical rainfall data are combined with the estimated response functions, and stochastic dominance analysis is used to compare the riskiness of fertilizer treatments in terms of net benefits and benefit‐cost ratios. Results show that, given the estimated expected rainfall in barley producing areas, fertilizer use, especially at low levels, may not be as risky as has been believed. Extensions of the methodology to include other environmental variables, or to target recommendations, are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed Mazid & Elizabeth Bailey, 1992. "Incorporating risk in the economic analysis of agronomic trials: fertilizer use on barley in Syria," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 7(2), pages 167-184, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:7:y:1992:i:2:p:167-184
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1574-0862.1992.tb00212.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Ozsabuncuoglu, Ismail H., 1998. "Production function for wheat: a case study of Southeastern Anatolian Project (SAP) region," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 75-87, January.
    2. Pannell, David J. & Nordblom, Thomas L., 1998. "Impacts of risk aversion on whole-farm management in Syria," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 42(3), pages 1-21.
    3. Rotter, R. & van Keulen, H. & Jansen, M. J. W., 1997. "Variations in yield response to fertilizer application in the tropics: I. Quantifying risks and opportunities for smallholders based on crop growth simulation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 41-68, January.
    4. Buaha, Gabriel Toichoa & Apland, Jeffrey & Hicks, Dale, 1995. "A Regression Analysis Of The Effects Of Planting Date And Variety On Corn Yields In Minnesota," Staff Papers 13872, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    5. Ahmed, Mohamed A.M. & Shideed, Kamel & Mazid, Ahmed, 2010. "Returns to Policy-Oriented Agricultural Research: The Case of Barley Fertilization in Syria," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 1462-1472, October.

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