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Evaluating alternative price expectation models for multiproduct supply analysis

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  • Christopher S. McIntosh
  • C. Richard Shumway

Abstract

Neoclassical economic theory provides an important conceptual framework for the analysis of agricultural production. Theory provides little guidance, however, in the actual specification of empirical models. This paper applies an integrated approach for choosing between price expectation mechanisms in a multiple‐equation model when the alternatives are non‐nested. Nine alternative specifications of market price and policy information are developed. Price forecasting accuracy, non‐nested tests of hypotheses, and out‐of‐sample predictive accuracy are examined for agricultural production in Iowa. The results call into question the reliability of using forecasting accuracy as the sole guide to selecting a price expectation proxy.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher S. McIntosh & C. Richard Shumway, 1994. "Evaluating alternative price expectation models for multiproduct supply analysis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:10:y:1994:i:1:p:1-11
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1574-0862.1994.tb00284.x
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    1. Parrott, Scott D. & McIntosh, Christopher S., 1996. "Nonconstant Price Expectations and Acreage Response: The Case of Cotton Production in Georgia," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(1), pages 203-210, July.
    2. Vedenov, Dmitry V., 2003. ""Irrational" Planting Behavior As Rational Expectations Of Government Support," 2003 Annual Meeting, February 1-5, 2003, Mobile, Alabama 35237, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    3. Krishna Paudel & Christopher McIntosh, 2005. "Numeraire choice in agricultural supply analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(11), pages 1209-1214.
    4. Winter-Nelson, Alex, 1996. "Expectations, supply response, and marketing boards: An example from Kenya," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 21-31, April.
    5. Kim, Youngho & Lichtenberg, Erik & Newburn, David A., 2024. "Payments and penalties in ecosystem services programs," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    6. Stavriotis, Paul A. & Houston, Jack E. & McIntosh, Christopher S. & Turner, Steven C., 1998. "Leading Indicators For Regional Cotton Response: Structural And Time Series Modeling Results," Faculty Series 16717, University of Georgia, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    7. Kim, Youngho & Lichtenberg, Erik & Newburn, David, 2022. "Payments and Penalties in Ecosystem Services Programs," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322103, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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