Development of a Mathematical Model to Analyze the Impact of Fuel Subsidy on Rice Production in Niger State, Nigeria

This study develops a mathematical model to evaluate the impact of fuel subsidy policies on rice production in Niger State, Nigeria. Agriculture is crucial to Nigeria’s economy, and rice is a staple food and source of livelihood for farmers. However, fluctuating fuel costs and evolving subsidy programs affect agricultural productivity. Using linear regression techniques, this study analyzes the relationship between fuel subsidy policies and rice production levels. Key variables include fuel price, rice price, and transportation costs. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) enables a robust simulation of policy effects. The model’s performance is assessed using R-square, Mean Square Error (MSE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Results indicate that approximately 59.8% of the variance in rice production can be explained by the independent variables. The findings highlight the critical role of fuel subsidies in shaping agricultural outcomes, particularly in resource constrained farming communities. This study underscores the need for evidence-based policy decisions to balance subsidy allocation with sustainable agricultural growth.