IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bjc/journl/v11y2024i7p1276-1297.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Research on the Impact of Geopolitical Instability on Russian Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Pavel Talamanov

    (Graduate Student, Business School, Zhengzhou University, China)

Abstract

This study examines how global and country-specific geopolitical instability affects Russian trade using data from 1996 to 2021. A panel regression model analyzes trade between Russia and its 15 top trading partners, exploring both direct and indirect effects. The analysis focuses on how accumulated foreign direct investment (FDI) and exchange rate fluctuations mediate these relationships. The findings reveal that global geopolitical instability decrease Russian trade by 0.0558. Interestingly, this negative impact is partially mediated by a decrease in FDI (-0.0805). This aligns with the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) results, which show a significant negative effect of global geopolitical instability on FDI (-1.209). This suggests that FDI acts as a key transmitter of the negative effects of global instability on Russian trade. The role of exchange rate fluctuations, however, is more complex. While the Sobel Test indicated a negative indirect effect, the SEM analysis shows a positive indirect effect through exchange rate fluctuations on trade. This suggests potentially countervailing effects of currency fluctuations, with depreciation potentially incentivizing exports while appreciation might make imports cheaper. The impact of country-specific geopolitical instability varies depending on the context. Industries like food products and textiles are significantly affected by geopolitical instability increase, while sectors such as fuels, metals and raw materials show resilience. Close trading partners are less affected by global instability but suffer from partner-specific instability. Geographically, Western Europe benefits from global instability but faces challenges from partner-specific instability, contrasting with Eastern Europe and Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Pavel Talamanov, 2024. "Research on the Impact of Geopolitical Instability on Russian Trade," International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation, International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation (IJRSI), vol. 11(7), pages 1276-1297, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bjc:journl:v:11:y:2024:i:7:p:1276-1297
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rsisinternational.org/journals/ijrsi/digital-library/volume-11-issue-7/1276-1297.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://rsisinternational.org/journals/ijrsi/articles/research-on-the-impact-of-geopolitical-instability-on-russian-trade/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    2. Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Collateral Damage: Trade Disruption and the Economic Impact of War," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 102-127, February.
    3. Balcilar, Mehmet & Bonato, Matteo & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Geopolitical risks and stock market dynamics of the BRICS," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 295-306.
    4. Evguenia Bessonova & Konstantin Kozlov & Ksenia Yudaeva, 2003. "Trade Liberalization, Foreign Direct Investment, and Productivity of Russian Firms," Working Papers w0039, New Economic School (NES).
    5. Nitsch, Volker & Schumacher, Dieter, 2004. "Terrorism and international trade: an empirical investigation," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 423-433, June.
    6. Philippe Mueller & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi & Andrea Vedolin, 2017. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy Uncertainty," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(3), pages 1213-1252, June.
    7. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    8. Morrow, James D. & Siverson, Randolph M. & Tabares, Tressa E., 1998. "The Political Determinants of International Trade: The Major Powers, 1907–1990," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 92(3), pages 649-661, September.
    9. Jesper Jensen & Thomas Rutherford & David Tarr, 2014. "The Impact of Liberalizing Barriers to Foreign Direct Investment in Services: The Case of Russian Accession to the World Trade Organization," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: APPLIED TRADE POLICY MODELING IN 16 COUNTRIES Insights and Impacts from World Bank CGE Based Projects, chapter 6, pages 125-149, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Ekaterina Y. Аrapova & Tatiana M. Isachenko, 2019. "Russian trade policy: main trends and impact on bilateral trade flows," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 12(1), pages 26-48.
    11. Kalotay, Kalman & Sulstarova, Astrit, 2010. "Modelling Russian outward FDI," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 131-142, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rangan Gupta & Giray Gozgor & Huseyin Kaya & Ender Demir, 2019. "Effects of geopolitical risks on trade flows: evidence from the gravity model," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 9(4), pages 515-530, December.
    2. Islam, Md. Monirul & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Samargandi, Nahla, 2024. "The nexus between Russian uranium exports and US nuclear-energy consumption: Do the spillover effects of geopolitical risks matter?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    3. Fuchs, Andreas & Klann, Nils-Hendrik, 2013. "Paying a visit: The Dalai Lama effect on international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 164-177.
    4. Jianting Fan & Bo Lu, 2021. "The impact of summit visits on bilateral trade: Empirical evidence from China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(12), pages 3583-3608, December.
    5. Guo, Peng & Shi, Jing, 2024. "Geopolitical risks, investor sentiment and industry stock market volatility in China: Evidence from a quantile regression approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    6. Yang, Jianlei & Yang, Chunpeng, 2021. "The impact of mixed-frequency geopolitical risk on stock market returns," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 226-240.
    7. Niu, Zibo & Wang, Chenlu & Zhang, Hongwei, 2023. "Forecasting stock market volatility with various geopolitical risks categories: New evidence from machine learning models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    8. Tam NguyenHuu & Deniz Karaman Orsal, 2022. "Geopolitical risks and financial stress in emerging economies," Working Papers 2022.09, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    9. Chunfang Cao & Xiaoyang Li & Guilin Liu, 2023. "Does geopolitical risk matter for corporate investment decisions? Evidence from cross‐border acquisitions," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 665-695, November.
    10. repec:got:cegedp:113 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Zhang, Yulian & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2022. "A connectedness analysis among BRICS’s geopolitical risks and the US macroeconomy," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 182-203.
    12. Liu, Xi & Zhang, Xueyong, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and currency returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    13. Sohag, Kazi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Mariev, Oleg & Safonova, Yulia, 2022. "Do geopolitical events transmit opportunity or threat to green markets? Decomposed measures of geopolitical risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    14. Yuren Wang & Yitao Tao, 2024. "The effect of fluctuations in bilateral relations on trade: evidence from China and ASEAN countries," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
    15. Ahmed H. Elsayed & Mohamad Husam Helmi, 2021. "Volatility transmission and spillover dynamics across financial markets: the role of geopolitical risk," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 305(1), pages 1-22, October.
    16. Segnon, Mawuli & Gupta, Rangan & Wilfling, Bernd, 2024. "Forecasting stock market volatility with regime-switching GARCH-MIDAS: The role of geopolitical risks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 29-43.
    17. Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2022. "Jumps in Geopolitical Risk and the Cryptocurrency Market: The Singularity of Bitcoin," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 150-161, February.
    18. Daniel Mirza & Thierry Verdier, 2014. "Are Lives a Substitute for Livelihoods? Terrorism, Security, and US Bilateral Imports," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 58(6), pages 943-975, September.
    19. Li, Rong & Tang, Guangyuan & Hong, Chen & Li, Sufang & Li, Bingting & Xiang, Shujian, 2024. "A study on economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk and stock market spillovers in BRICS countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    20. António Afonso & José Alves & João Jalles & Sofia Monteiro & João Tovar Jalles, 2024. "Energy Price Dynamics in the Face of Uncertainty Shocks and the Role of Exchange Rate Regimes: A Global Cross-Country Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 11384, CESifo.
    21. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Tang, Huayun & Li, Ding, 2022. "The roles of oil shocks and geopolitical uncertainties on China’s green bond returns," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 494-505.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bjc:journl:v:11:y:2024:i:7:p:1276-1297. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dr. Renu Malsaria (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://rsisinternational.org/journals/ijrsi/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.