Main vectors of changes in payments balance of Ukraine

The state and structure of the state’s balance of payments is the main indicator that reflects the country’s foreign economic relations with the world economy, is an important object of state regulation, affects the stability of the country’s financial market, the exchange rate of the national currency, the movement of capital and the entire economy. To analyze the current state of the balance of payments, the article examines how the war affected the state of the balance of payments, the current account and the financial account. During the analyzed period, changes in the balance of goods and services and the general trade balance are characterized by instability and sharp changes. After the outflow of financial capital in 2020, in 2021 the restoration of capital inflow began with the help of direct foreign investments in Ukraine and sale of debt securities abroad. The war with the russian federation led to a significant deterioration of the balance of payments, causing its deficit for the 3 quarters of 2022 at the level of 5,912 million dollars USA. First of all, the foreign trade balance deteriorated sharply. The outflow of currency on the financial account of the balance of payments increased even more rapidly. The main items of the balance of payments, which provide foreign currency to Ukraine and which support its condition, are fairly stable receipts from remittances, wages and significant amounts of humanitarian and grant aid from international partners. The policy of the NBU regarding currency restrictions on the market and the formation of a fixed exchange rate helped mitigate the impact of the war on the state of the balance of payments and prevented a sharp devaluation of the hryvnia under the influence of psychological factors. In order to minimize risks, it is important to renew financial support from the IMF within the framework of the new financing program for Ukraine. That program would certainly support the balance of payments, the hryvnia exchange rate, and international reserves, as well as contribute to the expansion of external financing.