Are Poles stuck in overeducation? Individual dynamics of educational mismatch in Poland

The paper investigates the short-run job mobility of educationally mismatched workers, examining the validity of the Sicherman-Galor hypothesis, which predicts that overeducation is a temporary condition from a worker’s perspective associated with higher upward occupational and wage mobility. The study uses data from the Polish Labour Force Survey, investigating yearly changes in employment status, occupation, and wages. The results show that overeducated workers are more likely to remain employed compared to their properly matched colleagues. Both overeducated and undereducated workers tend to move towards jobs for which they are better matched. However, the rate of this adjustment is very low, contradicting the Sicherman-Galor hypothesis. On the other hand, overeducated workers, but mostly prime-aged ones, are found to experience faster wage growth compared to properly matched individuals, aligning with the Sicherman-Galor hypothesis. The higher wage growth of overeducated workers can be partially attributed to workers improving their match status over time.