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How do oil price changes affect inflation in Central and Eastern European countries? A wavelet-based Markov switching approach

Author

Listed:
  • Dejan Zivkov

    (Novi Sad School of Business, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia)

  • Jasmina Đuraskovic

    (Institute of Economic Sciences, Beograd, Srbija)

  • Slavica Manic

    (Faculty of economics in Belgrade, University of Belgrade, Beograd, Serbia)

Abstract

This paper investigates how oil price changes affect consumer price inflation in eleven Central and Eastern European countries. We use a wavelet-based Markov switching approach in order to distinguish between the effects at different time horizons. We find that the transmission of oil price changes to inflation is relatively low in the Central and Eastern European countries as an increase in the oil price of 100% is followed by a rise in inflation of 1–6 percentage points. The strongest impact from rising oil price on inflation is found for the longer time-horizons for most of the countries, which means that the indirect spillover effect is more intensive than the direct one. Also, the results indicate that exchange rate is not a significant factor when oil shocks are transmitted towards inflation, except in the occasions when high depreciation occurs. Slovakia and Bulgaria are the countries which experience the highest and most consistent pass-through effect throughout the observed sample, and this may be due to these countries having some of the highest oil import/GDP ratios.

Suggested Citation

  • Dejan Zivkov & Jasmina Đuraskovic & Slavica Manic, 2019. "How do oil price changes affect inflation in Central and Eastern European countries? A wavelet-based Markov switching approach," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 84-104.
    • Handle: RePEc:bic:journl:v:19:y:2019:i:1:p:84-104
    DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2018.1562011
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. İbrahim Özmen & Şerife Özşahin, 2023. "Effects of global energy and price fluctuations on Turkey's inflation: new evidence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2695-2728, August.
    2. Leila Ben Salem & Ridha Nouira & Christophe Rault, 2024. "On the Impact of Oil Prices on Sectoral Inflation: Evidence from World’s Top Oil Exporters and Importers," CESifo Working Paper Series 10879, CESifo.
    3. Dejan Živkov & Jovan Njegić & Marko Pećanac, 2019. "Multiscale interdependence between the major agricultural commodities," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 65(2), pages 82-92.
    4. Izabela Pruchnicka-Grabias, 2021. "The Relationship between Gold and Brent Crude Oil Prices: An Unrestricted Vector Autoregression Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 276-282.
    5. Ngo Thai Hung & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2023. "Multi-scale Features of Interdependence Between Oil Prices and Stock Prices," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 30(3), pages 475-504, September.
    6. Andreani, Michele & Giri, Federico, 2023. "Not a short-run noise! The low-frequency volatility of energy inflation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil; inflation; wavelet; Markov switching model; CEECs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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