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Türkiye icin Makroekonomik Performans Endeksinin Analizi (1990-2017): Yapay Sinir Agı Yaklasımı

Author

Listed:
  • Bahatdin Dasbası

    (Kayseri University)

  • Dogan Barak

    (Bingol University)

  • Tuncay Celik

    (Kayseri University)

Abstract

Son yıllarda ulkelerin makroekonomik performansları OECD tarafından gelistirilen Makroekonomik Performans Endeksi ile degerlendirilmektedir. Bu endeks icinde 5 farklı makro değisken yer almaktadır, degiskenlerin belli oralardaki agırlıkları toplamına 100 eklenmesiyle elde edilmektedir. OECD üyesi tüm ulkelerin homojen bir ekonomik yapı sergilemedigi dikkate alındıgında, makroekonomik performans endeksi icinde yer alan 5 değiskene ait sabit agırlıklar problem olusturmaktadır. Bu degiskenlerden biri olan ve dıs denge gostergesi kabul edilen cari acığın GSYİH’a oranı dıs ticaret yapısına gore iki uye ulkede farklı makroekonomik etkiye sahip olabilecektir. Iste bu calısmada Turkiye’de 1990-2017 doneminde makroekonomik performans endeksi OECD yonteminde kullanılan 5 degiskene ait verilerle Yapay Sinir Agı (YSA) yontemiyle tahmin edilmistir. Bu tahmin endeks icinde yer alan degiskenlerin agırlıklarını kendi icinde belirlemistir. Yapılan tahminde OECD hesaplamasında issizlik oranının %20 olan agırlıgının degismedigi, ekonomik buyumenin endeks ici agırlıgının %30’dan yaklasık %27’ye ve enflasyonun %20 olan agırlıgının %17’ye gerilediği, butce ve cari acık degiskenlerinin agırlıgının da %15’den sırasıyla %20 ve %17’ye yukseldigi gorulmuştur.

Suggested Citation

  • Bahatdin Dasbası & Dogan Barak & Tuncay Celik, 2019. "Türkiye icin Makroekonomik Performans Endeksinin Analizi (1990-2017): Yapay Sinir Agı Yaklasımı," Bingol University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Bingol University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 3(1), pages 93-112, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bgo:journl:v:3:y:2019:i:1:p:93-112repec/bgo/
    DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.33399/biibfad.589206
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Buyume; issizlik; butçe acıgı; cari acık; makroekonomik performans indeksi; yapay sinir agları;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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