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Inferring Changes in Expectation Behavior over Time: An Application of Nonlinear Time-Varying-Parameters Estimation

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  • Fuhrer, Jeffrey C

Abstract

This article develops a new method for inferring the structure of agents' expectations from macroeconomic time series. Two versions of a somewhat stylized macroeconomic model are examined. Expectations of money growth are a central driving variable, assumed to be formed as a time-varying weighted average of alternative money-growth models. The weights are estimated as time-varying parameters jointly with the structural parameters for the model, using a nonlinear time-varying parameters method developed for the article. The results allow the author to infer how agents may have revised their beliefs about competing money-growth models (including Federal Open Market Committee announcements) over the sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Fuhrer, Jeffrey C, 1992. "Inferring Changes in Expectation Behavior over Time: An Application of Nonlinear Time-Varying-Parameters Estimation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(2), pages 169-177, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:10:y:1992:i:2:p:169-77
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    Cited by:

    1. Moreira, Ricardo Ramalhete, 2016. "Measuring the Monetary Policy’s Structural Credibility by the Expected Inflation Determinants: a Kalman Filter Approach for Brazil," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 36(2), November.
    2. Pizzinga, Adrian & Fernandes, Cristiano, 2006. "State Space Models for Dynamic Style Analysis of Portfolios," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 26(1), May.
    3. Barrell, Ray & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hall, Stephen & Garratt, Anthony, 1997. "Learning about monetary union: An analysis of bounded rational learning in European labor markets," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 469-489, October.

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