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Ograničenja Gravitacionog Modela U Ekonometrijskoj Analizi Spoljnotrgovinske Razmene

Author

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  • Radmila Dragutinović Mitrović

Abstract

Predmet razmatranja u ovom radu je ekonometrijsko modeliranje bilateralne razmene na bazi gravitacionog modela. U dosadašnjim istraživanjima gravitacioni model je standardno korišćen u svrhe ocenjivanja potencijala bilateralne razmene među zemljama. Procene mogućnosti za njen porast vršene su na osnovu odstupanja ostvarenog od potencijalnog, modelom ocenjenog nivoa razmene. U ovom radu se ukazuje na određena ograničenja takve standardne analize, najčešće zasnovane na uporednim podacima (podacima preseka). Stoga se razmatraju alternativne specifikacije gravitacionog modela na podacima panela i moguće efikasnije procedure ocenjivanja, kao osnove za pouzdanije ekonomske zaključke. Takođe, sprovedena je teorijska i empirijska analiza ekonometrijskih problema u ocenjivanju gravitacionog modela panela, koji su u dosadašnjoj literaturi ili izolovano posmatrani (na primer, autokorelacija u panelu), ili uopšte nisu razmatrani (na primer, dvostruka endogenost regresora). Na osnovu empirijske analize pokazano je da razmatrani problemi i ograničenja uzrokuju pristrasne ocene regresionih parametara i sistematske varijacije reziduala gravitacionog modela. Na bazi takvih rezultata, predviđanje i zaključivanje o potencijalu razmene između zemalja bilo bi nepouzdano.

Suggested Citation

  • Radmila Dragutinović Mitrović, 2005. "Ograničenja Gravitacionog Modela U Ekonometrijskoj Analizi Spoljnotrgovinske Razmene," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 50(166), pages 149-178, July - Se.
    • Handle: RePEc:beo:journl:v:50:y:2005:i:166:p:149-178
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