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Analiza Ekonomske (Ne)Ravnoteže Platnog Bilansa Republike Srbije U Periodu 2007-2023. (Analysis Of Economic (Im)Balance Of The Balance Of Payments Of The Republic Of Serbia In The Period 2007-2023)

Author

Listed:
  • Aleksandar Sekulić

Abstract

Rad je posvećen analizi ekonomske ravnoteže platnog bilansa na primeru Republike Srbije od 2007. do 2023. godine. Srbija, kao mala i otvorena privreda, beleži perzistentan deficit u tekućem delu platnog bilansa tokom čitavog perioda analize usled značajne zavisnosti od uvoza roba i, posledično, visokog deficita robne razmene, kao i deficita na računu primarnog dohotka. Najveći deficit u ovom delu platnog bilansa ostvaren je za vreme Globalne finansijske krize 2007/2008. godine, koji se potom smanjuje sve do izbijanja Pandemijske krize 2020. i Geopolitičke krize 2022, kada dolazi do blagog pogoršanja. Sa druge strane, suficit u razmeni usluga i stabilan priliv u vidu doznaka iz inostranstva, usled migracija stanovništva mahom u zapadnoevropske zemlje, ublažavaju deficitni saldo tekućeg računa. U Republici Srbiji se godinama unazad beleži trend rasta neto priliva po osnovu stranih direktnih investicija u kapitalno-finansijskom delu platnog bilansa, koji od 2015. godine uspešno pokriva deficitni saldo tekućeg računa. Shodno deficitnoj poziciji tekućeg računa i suficitnoj poziciji kapitalno-finansijskog računa, zaključujemo da je bazični bilans pozitivan, te je izbegnut rizični scenario pokrivanja deficitnih pozicija kratkoročnim kapitalom i deviznim rezervama. Usmeravanje poluga ekonomske politike ka ublažavanju hronično deficitne pozicije tekućeg računa ostaje prioritetan cilj, imajući u vidu vezu platnobilansne pozicije sa deviznim tržištem, deviznim kursem, inflacijom i realnom ekonomijom.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksandar Sekulić, 2024. "Analiza Ekonomske (Ne)Ravnoteže Platnog Bilansa Republike Srbije U Periodu 2007-2023. (Analysis Of Economic (Im)Balance Of The Balance Of Payments Of The Republic Of Serbia In The Period 2007-2023)," Ekonomske ideje i praksa, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, issue 54, pages 39-53, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:beo:ekidpr:y:2024:i:54:p:39-53
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    platni bilans; ekonomska (ne)ravnoteža; tekući bilans; kapitalno-finansijski bilans;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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