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Uticaj Pandemije Covid-19 Na Kretanja Sdi – Iskustva Srbije (Impact Of The Covid-19 Pandemic On Fdi Trends - Experiences Of Serbia)

Author

Listed:
  • Milan Tomić
  • Marija Antonijević
  • Bojan Pejović

Abstract

U ovom istraživanju analiziran je uticaj krize prouzrokovane pandemijom COVID-19 na ekonomska kretanja, kao i protok stranih direktnih investicija. COVID-19 recesija se može smatrati jedinstvenom, jer je jedina koja je od 1870. godine pokrenuta isključivo pandemijom. Uticaj novonastale pandemije posedovao je sliku sveobuhvatne stagnacije kao i usporavanja svetske ekonomije, čije se glavne vizualizacije ogledaju u sistematskom gašenju ekonomskih aktivnosti širom sveta, gde se gašenje aktivnosti dešava u različitim sektorima istovremeno. Ovo istraživanje se fokusira na uticaj svetske ekonomske krize prouzrokovanom pandemijom COVID-19 na ekonomska kretanja u svetu i u Republici Srbiji. U fokusu ovog istraživanja je utvrđivanje uticaja pandemije na strane direktne investicije u Srbiji, kao i odnosa SDI sa izvozom i uvozom. Generalna kretanja SDI pre pandemije odlikuje pad od 2019. godine, pri čemu je svetska kriza prouzrokovana pandemijom doprinela izrazitom padu SDI u 2020. godini. Protok SDI na globalnom nivou je u 2021. godini posedovao tendenciju rasta nasuprot prethodne godine, pri čemu s normalizacija protoka SDI očekuje tek u 2022. godini. Autori su koristeći tri modela utvrdili da je u Srbiji COVID-19 imao statistički značajan i negativan uticaj na BDP po glavi stanovnika na nivou pouzdanosti od 90%. Sa druge strane, uticaj COVID-19 na izvoz nije statistički značajan. Rezultati ukazuju da jedinični rast stranih direktnih investicija dovodi posledično do većeg rasta uvoza u odnosu na izvoz.

Suggested Citation

  • Milan Tomić & Marija Antonijević & Bojan Pejović, 2021. "Uticaj Pandemije Covid-19 Na Kretanja Sdi – Iskustva Srbije (Impact Of The Covid-19 Pandemic On Fdi Trends - Experiences Of Serbia)," Ekonomske ideje i praksa, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, issue 42, pages 47-72, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:beo:ekidpr:y:2021:i:42:p:47-72
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    SDI; COVID-19; ekonomska kriza; makroekonomska analiza; Srbija;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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