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Neuravnoteženost Deviznog Kursa Kao Potencijalni Okidač Protekcionističke Trgovinske Politike (Exchange Rate Misalignment As A Potential Trigger Of Protectionist Trade Policy)

Author

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  • Aleksandra Đorđević Zorić

Abstract

Opasnost od potencijalnog oživljavanja protekcionizma nakon dugogodišnjih napora u cilju liberalizacije međunarodne trgovine intenzivirala je debate o uticaju deviznih kurseva na spoljnotrgovinsku politiku. Mogućnost prelivanja politike deviznog kursa na spoljnotrgovinsku politiku, kao i mogućnost uticaja kretanja nivoa deviznog kursa na jačanje protekcionističke aktivnosti implicira neophodnost analiziranja neuravnoteženosti kursa. U tom smislu, cilj ovog rada je da ukaže na važnost praćenja odstupanja deviznog kursa od ravnotežnog nivoa, kao i da ispita stepen neuravnoteženosti kursa izabranih zemalja centralne, istočne i jugoistočne Evrope, kako bi se ukazalo na potencijalno postojanje opasnosti od jačanja protekcionizma u ovim zemljama. Dobijeni rezultati, primenom dva pristupa, pokazuju da neuravnoteženost kursa postoji, ali da smer i stepen neuravnoteženosti varira u zavisnosti od izabranog metoda izračunavanja. Kretanje izabranih pokazatelja neuravnoteženosti ukazuje na smanjivanje podsticaja za jačanje protekcionističke aktivnosti, koja bi se negativno odrazila na region.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksandra Đorđević Zorić, 2019. "Neuravnoteženost Deviznog Kursa Kao Potencijalni Okidač Protekcionističke Trgovinske Politike (Exchange Rate Misalignment As A Potential Trigger Of Protectionist Trade Policy)," Ekonomske ideje i praksa, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, issue 34, pages 47-60, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:beo:ekidpr:y:2019:i:34:p:47-60
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    neuravnoteženost deviznog kursa; potcenjenost valute; precenjenost valute; protekcionizam;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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