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Racionalni Cenovni Baloni Tokom Istorije I Pogled Tradicionalnih I Bihevioralnih Finansija Na Njih (Rational Price Bubbles During The History And View Of Traditional And Behavioral Finance On Them)

Author

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  • Dragana Draganac

Abstract

Nagli rast cena sredstva, često znatno iznad njegove fundamentalne vrednosti, usled samoispunjavajućih očekivanja o visokim prinosima sredstva u budućnosti, poznat je pod nazivom racionalni cenovni balon. Visoke cene opstaju izvestan period, dok traje euforija, nakon čega, kad investitori otkriju da se samoispunjavajuća očekivanja o prinosima nisu ostvarila, sledi masovna panična prodaja sredstva, drastičan pad cene i pucanje cenovnog balona. Tokom istorije, često je pucanje cenovnih balona bilo praćeno ozbiljnim finansijskim krizama, koje su se, neretko, širile sa finansijskog na realni sektor, a usled globalizacije i internacionalizacije, sa jednog kraja sveta na drugi. Ozbiljnost posledica pucanja cenovnih balona, koji su praćene finansijskim i realnim krizama, čini ovu temu važnom za istraživanje. Država često interveniše unošenjem novca u privredni sistem, što vodi rastu javnog duga, čije posledice snose svi. U radu su prikazana različita objašnjenja racionalnih cenovnih balona od strane tradicionalnih i bihevioralnih finansija. Iako ova tema postaje aktuelnija sa pojavom i razvojem bihevioralnih finansija, i tradicionalne finansije su se, u manjoj meri, bavile pitanjem cenovnih balona. Racionalne cenovne balone objašnjavaju različitim faktorima, poput finansijske nestabilnosti i prevelike dostupnosti kredita, fundamentalne neizvesnosti budućih prinosa i želje investitora za brzim sticanjem novca. Bihevioralna objašnjenja cenovnih balona obuhvataju samoispunjavajuća očekivanja, investitorov osećaj, preterani optimizam, višak samopouzdanja, manipulaciju uverenjima, informacione kaskade, i sl. Cilj rada je identifikovanje zajedničkih faktora koji uzrokuju racionalne cenovne balone, kako bi se na iste delovalo merama ekonomske politike, što bi uslovilo ređu pojavu cenovnih balona i blaže posledice njihovog pucanja.

Suggested Citation

  • Dragana Draganac, 2018. "Racionalni Cenovni Baloni Tokom Istorije I Pogled Tradicionalnih I Bihevioralnih Finansija Na Njih (Rational Price Bubbles During The History And View Of Traditional And Behavioral Finance On Them)," Ekonomske ideje i praksa, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, issue 29, pages 37-58, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:beo:ekidpr:y:2018:i:29:p:37-58
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    Keywords

    racionalni cenovni baloni; tradicionalne finansije; bihevioralne finansije; hipoteza o efikasnosti tržišta;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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