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Posledice Jačanja Dolara U Periodu 2014-2015. Godine Na Privredu Sad (The Consequences Of The Dollar Strengthening On U.S. Economy In 2014-2015)

Author

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  • Radovan Kovačević

Abstract

Volatilnost deviznog kursa često ima značajne posledice na međunarodnu trgovinu. U ovom radu se analiziraju posledice apresijacije dolara u periodu 2014-2015. godine na privredu SAD. Nalazi u ovom radu potvrđuju tezu da jačanje dolara utiče na tekući račun i privredni rast SAD. Normalizacija monetarne politike u SAD, u vidu očekivanog rasta referentne kamatne stope Fed-a, podstiče buduća očekivanja apresijacije dolara. Inostrani dug SAD posle 2007. godine naglo se uvećao. Kao neto dužnik prema inostranstvu,SAD servisira ovaj dug u svojoj valuti. Porast vrednosti dolara stvara dodatno opterećenje za SAD, jer je njihov spoljni dug u dolarima, a inostrana aktiva u drugim valutama, koje gube na vrednosti prema dolaru kad dolar apresira. To otežava spoljnofinansijsku poziciju zemlje.

Suggested Citation

  • Radovan Kovačević, 2016. "Posledice Jačanja Dolara U Periodu 2014-2015. Godine Na Privredu Sad (The Consequences Of The Dollar Strengthening On U.S. Economy In 2014-2015)," Ekonomske ideje i praksa, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, issue 21, pages 7-28, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:beo:ekidpr:y:2016:i:21:p:7-28
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    dolar; tekući račun; efekrivni devizni kurs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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