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Macroeconomic uncertainty: measurement and impact on the Spanish economy

Author

Listed:
  • María Gil
  • Javier J. Pérez
  • Alberto Urtasun

Abstract

This article characterises the level of uncertainty in the Spanish economy. Various indicators are analysed, distinguishing their source: financial market volatility, degree of disagreement between agents on the economic situation and economic policy uncertainty. Aggregate uncertainty in the Spanish economy increased in 2016, although it remained at levels below the average for the 2008-2013 recession. The changes in uncertainty captured by financial indicators are shown to have a higher impact on economic activity, and particularly on investment. Finally, it is illustrated how a significant part of the macroeconomic effect of the heightened uncertainty in the past year originated outside the Spanish economy.

Suggested Citation

  • María Gil & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun, 2017. "Macroeconomic uncertainty: measurement and impact on the Spanish economy," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue MAR.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:journl:y:2017:i:3:d:aa:n:3
    Note: Analytical Articles
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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/InformesBoletinesRevistas/ArticulosAnaliticos/2017/T1/files/beaa1701-art3e.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:ptu:bdpart:r201706 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Cristina Manteu & Sara Serra, 2017. "Impact of uncertainty measures on the Portuguese economy," Working Papers w201709, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. María Gil & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun, 2019. "Nowcasting private consumption: traditional indicators, uncertainty measures, credit cards and some internet data," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The use of big data analytics and artificial intelligence in central banking, volume 50, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Marta Martínez-Matute & Alberto Urtasun, 2018. "Uncertainty, firm heterogeneity and labour adjustments. Evidence from European countries," Working Papers 1821, Banco de España.
    5. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Monitoring the Spanish Economy through the Lenses of Structural Bayesian VARs," Occasional Papers 1706, Banco de España.
    6. Xu Bing & Moritz Roth & Daniel Santabárbara, 2019. "Global impact of a slowdown in China," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue DEC.
    7. Javier Andrés & Pablo Burriel & Wenyi Shen, 2020. "Debt sustainability and fiscal space in a heterogeneous Monetary Union: normal times vs the zero lower bound," Working Papers 2001, Banco de España.
    8. Basile, Roberto & Girardi, Alessandro, 2018. "Uncertainty and Business Cycle: A Review of the Literature and Some Evidence from the Spanish Economy/Incertidumbre y Ciclo Empresarial: Revisión de la literatura y evidencia en la economía española," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 36, pages 235-250, Enero.

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