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Un procedimiento para la predicción a corto plazo del PIB por el lado de la oferta

Author

Listed:
  • Alejandro Fernández Cerezo

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

Motivación El impacto desigual por ramas de actividad de las recientes perturbaciones que han afectado a la economía española, vinculadas tanto al COVID-19 o como al repunte de los precios energéticos, ha puesto de manifiesto la importancia del seguimiento de la actividad por el lado de la oferta. Ideas principales •Este artículo presenta un procedimiento de previsión del PIB trimestral a partir de la combinación de indicadores de frecuencia mensual que permite estimar el crecimiento del valor añadido bruto de cada rama de actividad. •Los resultados obtenidos en términos de capacidad predictiva muestran la utilidad de un enfoque desagregado por ramas de actividad como una herramienta complementaria para el seguimiento coyuntural de la actividad.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Fernández Cerezo, 2023. "Un procedimiento para la predicción a corto plazo del PIB por el lado de la oferta," Boletín Económico, Banco de España, issue 2023/T1.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:joures:y:2023:i:01:n:18
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.53479/29771
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ciclo económico; crecimiento; series temporales; previsiones; sectores;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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