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An Analysis of Real Exchange Rate Misalignments under Regime Shifts in Argentina

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Aromí

    (IIEP UBA-Conicet)

  • Marcos Dal Bianco

    (BBVA Research)

Abstract

We analyzed the presence of different mean and variance regimens for the misalignment of the real exchange rate of Argentina using a switching regimen Markov model with time-varying transition probabilities. Our estimates identified two states in the mean of the real exchange rate misalignment associated with real appreciations and depreciations, being the latter more persistent than the former. On the other hand, we only found one state for the variance of those imbalances. Besides, a close temporal correlation between the mayor stabilization plans and the appreciated state is verified. Finally, we showed that using time-varying transition probabilities is proper approach, being those probabilities explained by domestic variables, like the inflation rate, and international variables, like the US interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Aromí & Marcos Dal Bianco, 2014. "An Analysis of Real Exchange Rate Misalignments under Regime Shifts in Argentina," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(71), pages 40-71, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcr:ensayo:v:1:y:2014:i:71:p:40-71
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Argentina; real exchange rate; real imbalances; regime switching models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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