Economic Policy Implications of the Current Financial Instability

The pro-cyclical behavior inherent in the operation of financial markets is at the heart of the current financial crisis. Against the arguments upheld by orthodox economists, these markets do not stabilize by themselves nor tend to smooth the private spending behavior. This problem has been worsened by the fact that the current prudential regulations are also pro-cyclical. In developing countries, the crisis has blended with structural deficiencies in the operation of the global monetary and financial system, above all the strong pro-cyclical shocks they face and the need of accumulating abundant international reserves so that they can have more room to adopt counter-cyclical macroeconomic policies. Nevertheless, this rational decision of being “self-insured” against crises may have contributed to create global payment imbalances. This paper states that these two dimensions of the world crisis –the absence of a counter-cyclical prudential regulatory framework and the massive “self-insurance” of developing countries– can only be solved with global solutions. The first problem requires the adoption of a regulatory and prudential-supervision counter-cyclical framework by all the countries. The second problem requires the design of better global instruments to manage financial crises in developing countries, so that they can have more “policy room to maneuver” in the adoption of counter-cyclical macroeconomic policies.